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ReportOtto F, Giguere J, Clarke B, et al., 2024,
When risks become reality: extreme weather in 2024
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Journal articleLi M, Toumi R, 2024,
On the temporal decay of tropical cyclones over the ocean
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 51, ISSN: 0094-8276It is important to understand how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay over the ocean as this is a criticalpre‐landfall stage. A modified exponential decay model (β model) with two parameters α and β is proposed. Thescale parameter α defines the decay scale, while the shape parameter β determines whether the decay ratedecelerates or accelerates over time. Global fittings indicate that around 40% of TCs exhibit decelerating decay(β≤1), while the majority (about 60%) show accelerating decay (β>1). Correlation analysis reveals a strongnegative correlation between the scale parameter α and the initial Coriolis parameter (r = − 0.96) and a positivecorrelation between the shape parameter β and the meridional component of the initial translation velocity(r = 0.75). The β model provides a comprehensive understanding of how TCs decay with time and howenvironmental conditions affect the decay scale and evolution.
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ReportMerz N, Clarke B, Basconcillo J, et al., 2024,
Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines, highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleBozigar M, Konstantinoudis G, Vieira CLZ, et al., 2024,
Domestic radon exposure and childhood cancer risk by site and sex in 727 counties in the United States, 2001-2018
, SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 954, ISSN: 0048-9697 -
Journal articleLi S, Chen L, Deng S, et al., 2024,
Benchmarking heat-driven adsorption carbon pumps (HACP): A thermodynamic perspective
, Carbon Capture Science and Technology, Vol: 13Benchmarking is pivotal in standardizing industrial devices, leading to notable performance enhancements in fields such as heating pump air conditioning, photovoltaic devices, and more. The significance of treating the CO<inf>2</inf> capture system in small/medium size was emphasized in this work as a standalone device from a thermodynamic perspective, which facilitates the creation of a comprehensive benchmarking methodology. In this study, we studied the heat-driven adsorption carbon pump (HACP) as a typical case for benchmarking. The benchmarking methodology proposed is structured through a five-step process: defining boundaries, determining indicators, establishing calculation processes, collecting and analyzing data, and ultimately evaluating and optimizing performance. By utilizing thermodynamic principles, the energy efficiency of HACP devices was assessed. Through the combination of standardized tests and theoretical calculations, this work enables a quantitative evaluation of energy consumption and the thermodynamic perfection of specific HACP devices.
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Journal articleXu Y, Han X, Cao XE, 2024,
Comprehensive performance evaluation of HVAC systems integrated with direct air capture of CO2 in various climate zones
, Building and Environment, Vol: 266, ISSN: 0360-1323Direct Air Capture (DAC) is a rapidly evolving technology that extracts CO<inf>2</inf> directly from ambient air. This study presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of integrating DAC in HVAC systems, which can reduce indoor CO<inf>2</inf> concentration and improve energy efficiency of HVAC systems. The DAC equipment is modeled in Modelica based on isotherm and thermodynamic equations, and pressure drop curves of the CO<inf>2</inf> sorbent described in literature. The model is validated with data from the literature, and then integrated into a typical HVAC system available in Modelica Buildings library. The HVAC system is a Variable Air Volume (VAV) with reheater system for a one-floor office building with standard ASHRAE 2006 control sequences. Demand control ventilation strategies are designed to reduce the outdoor air flowrates when indoor CO<inf>2</inf> concentrations are lower than the threshold, which is to maximize the benefits of integrating DAC. Four cases are proposed to assess the impacts of integrating DAC and DCV in HVAC systems in 8 different ASHRAE climate zones in the USA. The results show that by integrating DAC unit into the HVAC system, the average indoor CO<inf>2</inf> concentration can be significantly reduced by over 45 % against the baseline without a DAC unit. By integrating DCV, 0.39–21.66 % of annual energy savings and 226–9539 kg carbon emissions reduction are observed across different climate zones. The highest energy savings are found to be achieved with cold climatic conditions while the lowest energy savings occur with favorable weather.
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Journal articleSavage T, del Rio Chanona A, Oluleye G, 2024,
Assessing robust policies for the adoption of low-carbon technologies under uncertainty
, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 482, ISSN: 0959-6526Increasing the adoption of alternative technologies is vital to ensure a successful transition to net-zero emissions in the manufacturing sector. However, existing models are limited in their ability to analyse technology adoption and the impact of policy interventions in generating sufficient demand to reduce cost in the face of uncertainty. Such a model is vital for assessing policy-instruments for the implementation of future uncertain energy scenarios. We formulate a novel robust market potential assessment problem under uncertainty to support low carbon technology adoption, resulting in policies that are more immune to uncertain factors. We demonstrate two case studies: the potential use of carbon capture and storage for iron and steel production across the EU, and the transition to hydrogen from natural gas in steam boilers across the chemicals industry in the UK. We show that when parameters are jointly 5% uncertain, the robust policy for CCUS adoption results in a 40% increase in cost. Each robust optimisation problem is solved using an iterative cutting planes algorithm which enables existing models to be solved under uncertainty. By taking advantage of parallelisation we are able to solve the nonlinear robust market assessment problem for technology adoption in times within the same order of magnitude as the nominal problem. Our model demonstrates the possibility of locating robust policies for the implementation of low-carbon technologies, as well as providing direct insights for policy-makers into the decrease in policy effectiveness that results from increasing robustness. The approach we present is extensible to a large number of alternative technology adoption problems under uncertainty.
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Journal articleVineis P, Mangone L, Belesova K, et al., 2024,
Integration of multiple climate change mitigation actions and health co-benefits: a framework using the Global Calculator
, Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol: 132, ISSN: 0091-6765Background:The Global Calculator is an open-source model of the world’s energy, land, and food systems. It is a pioneering online calculator to project the impact of interventions to mitigate climate change on global temperature. A few studies have been conducted to evaluate the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation, though they are still fragmentary.Objectives:Our objectives are to identify which sectors could yield the greatest results in terms of climate change mitigation and suggest whether existing evidence could be used to weight mitigation actions based on their ancillary impacts on human health or health co-benefits.Methods:Using the International Energy Agency (IEA) 4DS scenario as a referent (i.e., the “4-degree Celsius increase scenario”), we simulated changes in different policy “levers” (encompassing 43 potential technological and behavioral interventions, grouped by 14 sectors) and assessed the relative importance of each lever in terms of changes in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and cumulative emissions by 2100. In addition, we examined existing estimates for the health co-benefits associated with different interventions, using evidence from the Lancet Pathfinder and four other tools.Discussion:Our simulations suggest that—after accounting for demographic change—transition from fossil fuels to renewables and changes in agriculture, forestry, land use, and food production are key sectors for climate change mitigation. The role of interventions in other sectors, like carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power, is more modest. Our work also identifies mitigation actions that are likely to have large health co-benefits, including shifts to renewable energy and changes in land use as well as dietary and travel behaviors. In conclusion, some of the sectors/interventions which have been at the center of policy debate (e.g., CCS or nuclear power) are likely to be far less important than chan
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Journal articleThomas A, Theokritoff E, 2024,
Adaptation constraints, limits and enabling conditions in small island developing states
, CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 71, ISSN: 1877-3435 -
ReportBird J, Hope G, Smith S, et al., 2024,
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
, Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham InstituteKey points• Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is an umbrella term for techniques that capture carbon dioxide from the air and store it durably, as a result of human activity. CDR and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are not the same thing, although the terms are sometimes incorrectly used interchangeably. • CDR has three potential uses in reaching climate goals: in the near term, to reduce net emissions; in the medium term, to counterbalance residual emissions to achieve ‘net zero’; and in the longer term, to achieve net-negative emissions in order to lower global temperatures if they exceed acceptable levels. • Given the uncertainties, costs and resource constraints associated with CDR, pursuing rapid emissions reductions must be a priority to mitigate the risks of relying on large-scale CDR. • Globally, almost all current removals come from CDR on land, primarily via afforestation, reforestation and improved management of existing forests. In future, CDR from ‘novel’ technologies will need to scale up rapidly – even for a lower-CDR pathways - requiring investment to stimulate innovation and drive down technology costs. • Aligning climate and socio-ecological objectives in the development, deployment and regulation of CDR, while putting in place the appropriate regulatory frameworks, will help to ensure that co-benefits are realised and environmental harms are minimised.
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ReportRogelj J, Lamboll R, Jennifer B, 2024,
Limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
, Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham InstituteKey points• The Paris Agreement 1.5°C target has not yet been missed: in 2023 and 2024 we have experienced some temporary temperature spikes where the global average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This is of great concern, but the long-term average global temperature increase is currently at around 1.2°C. • We are, however, at high risk of exceeding the 1.5°C level; at current emission levels, the remaining global carbon budget will be exhausted within about 5 years. • We therefore need to set out ambitious plans to rapidly move away from fossil fuels and scale up clean alternatives to reduce emissions across all parts of the economy. This will slow down and halt warming, with a possibility that this is below or around 1.5°C. • It makes sense to pursue rigorous mitigation efforts – with every fraction of a degree of warming beyond 1.5°C, impacts will become more severe, and the costs of adaptation will be greater.
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ReportRhodes A, Hanna R, Camacho McCluskey K, 2024,
Net Zero skills - policy brief
, Net Zero skills - jobs, skills and training for the Net-Zero energy transition: policy brief, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThis policy brief is based on our briefing paper, which investigates the evidence for low-carbon jobs, training and skills requirements in the UK’s energy system, with a deeper focus on Net-Zero skills in England. Through an extensive literature review and interviews with experts and practitioners, it analyses how the skills landscape is adapting to support the growth of low-carbon energy sectors, including both energy supply and end-use. Three case studies in sectors with high expected jobs growth are then presented to investigate challenges and opportunities for improving the supply of skills and training and demand for low-carbon energy careers. The paper culminates with a set of policy recommendations to create clear, inclusive training pathways into low-carbon energy jobs.
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Journal articleLiu L, Zhou Z, Liu Y, et al., 2024,
Lattice matching strategy in Cu-based oxides for large-scale and long-term thermochemical energy storage
, Energy Storage Materials, Vol: 73Redox-active metal oxides, particularly Cu-based oxide, are noteworthy for their economic feasibility and potential as a recyclable, zero-carbon energy source. These materials are poised to serve as a sustainable solution for large-scale and long-term thermochemical energy storage (TCES), thereby mitigating the intermittency challenges inherent in renewable energy systems. However, a significant impediment to their performance is the materials sintering at elevated temperatures, which precipitate a decline in cyclic reversibility, often manifesting even within the initial cycle of operation. To counteract this limitation, we proposed an innovative approach that leverages the concept of lattice matching, augmented by the incorporation of cigarette butts in the synthesis process to fabricate a Cu-Ce heterogeneous interface. This matched lattice preserved the integrity of the TCES material's porous architecture. Additionally, the lattice oxygen within this composite exhibits a transferability. Even after a prolonged period of two years under ambient air conditions, the TCES material retains the capacity to discharge a remarkable 99.4 % of its adsorbed energy. Furthermore, over the course of 600 cycles, the system's stability is remarkably preserved at 98–100 %, and reversible loss of pure CuO is ∼40 % within the initial cycle. Given these attributes, this TCES material emerges as a promising candidate for industrial applications.
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ReportOtto F, Clarke B, Barnes C, et al., 2024,
10 years of rapidly disentangling drivers of extreme weather disasters
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleHolm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2024,
Deterministic and stochastic geometric mechanics for Hall magnetohydrodynamics
, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, Vol: 480, ISSN: 1364-5021 -
ReportPinto I, Clarke B, Philip S, et al., 2024,
Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportPopovic I, 2024,
Spotlight on COP29: scaling up private climate finance in developing countries
, Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham InstituteKey points• Scaling up climate finance for developing countries will be at the forefront of discussions at the next annual climate talks, COP29.• Most investments in climate solutions are concentrated in developed countries, with only a small proportion reaching least developed and developing countries. • While investments in climate mitigation and adaptation are growing, a significant gap remains between current finance and what is needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.• Mobilising private finance, alongside scaling up public finance, is essential to closing this funding gap and ensuring that finance reaches those most in need.• Boosting private investments in developing countries requires: a coordinated effort between public and private sectors; supportive policies; diverse financial instruments; and stronger engagement from international financial institutions.
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ReportFoster V, Brandmayr C, 2024,
Transitioning away from fossil fuels: delivering the transition in low- and lower middle-income fossil fuel producing countries
, Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham InstituteKey points• Following the commitment at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels, it is imperative that countries set out robust plans to deliver a shift towards clean energy systems and away from fossil fuels production and consumption.• Depending on their natural resources and economic make up, low and lower middle-income countries will have to deliver an economic and a just transition, alongside an energy transition.• These countries face significant challenges to shifting their energy systems and realigning their economies, including limited access to finance and weak governance.• A larger scale, more programmatic approach to finance that goes beyond traditional climate finance is needed to enable low and lower middle income fossil fuel producing countries to address these multiple transitions.• An approach known as Data to deal can help ensure the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions provide a credible plan and effectively signal investment needs to the international finance community.A rapid move away from fossil fuel production and consumption is vital to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal, as highlighted in the latest IPCC assessment.
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ReportJennings N, Lawrance E, Dorigatti I, 2024,
How does climate change affect people's health in the UK?
, Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham InstituteKey points• Climate change is already impacting the physical and mental health of people in the UK.• Health impacts include an increase in deaths during periods of extreme heat, an increased risk of post-traumatic stress disorder for people affected by flooding and an increased risk of certain infectious diseases including Lyme disease.• People aged over 65 years old, those on lower incomes, ethnic minorities and people with preexisting health conditions (e.g. heart disease) are at greater risk of these health impacts.• The health impacts of climate change will increase in the absence of sufficient mitigation of greenhouse gases and adaptation to a warming climate.This briefing outlines how people’s health is directly and indirectly affected by climate change and what can be done to reduce these impacts.
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ReportBakkaloglu S, Rogelj J, Lamboll R, 2024,
Methane and global climate goals
, Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham InstituteKey points• Methane emission reductions are essential and integral to meeting the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. • The UK needs to accelerate domestic methane reductions to be in line with a 30% reduction by 2030 (compared to 2020), which is the global target set out in the Global Methane Pledge. • The UK can also support delivery of the Global Methane Pledge by using its role as a financial hub to stimulate innovation in methane-reducing technologies. • Great care needs to be taken when selecting metrics, such as GWP100 or GWP*, to assess the warming impact from methane. If they are used incorrectly, it may result in misleading messages or could even undermine policy outcomes.
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ReportTheokritoff E, 2024,
Can we adapt to all current and future climate impacts?
, Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham InstituteKey points• Limits to adaptation exist; some are already being experienced and others will increasingly be reached in the future if stringent emissions reductions and concerted adaptation efforts are not delivered. • Adaptation, mitigation and losses and damages must be equally addressed and in parallel to ensure a safe and just future for all. • Information on limits to adaptation should be included in adaptation plans to support effectiveness of measures in the long-term.
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ReportZachariah M, Jha R, Mondal A, et al., 2024,
Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportKhourdajie AA, Bataille C, Bird J, 2024,
Phasing out 'unabated fossil fuels': the importance of defining 'abatement'
, Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham InstituteKey points:• To achieve our climate goals, total global fossil fuel demand needs to fall substantially, even in a scenario where 'abated' fossil fuels are permitted. • Fitting Carbon Capture and Storage technology to fossil fuel plants does not automatically mean that carbon dioxide emissions have been 'abated' in line with the Paris Agreement goals. Without a formally agreed definition of what is meant by 'abatement', there is a risk that these goals will be compromised. • To be Paris Agreement compatible, abated fossil fuels need to be net-zero greenhouse gas emissions on a lifecycle basis. This requires four things: 1. Carbon dioxide capture rates of more than or equal to 90% of carbon dioxide emitted 2. Permanent storage of captured emissions 3. Reducing upstream and end-use fugitive methane emissions to less than 0.5% and towards 0.2% of gas production (and an equivalent for coal); and 4. Offsetting any remaining emissions through permanent carbon dioxide removal (CDR)
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Journal articleSchleussner C-F, Ganti G, Lejeune Q, et al., 2024,
Overconfidence in climate overshoot
, Nature, Vol: 634, Pages: 366-373, ISSN: 0028-0836Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.
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ReportClarke B, Barnes C, Sparks N, et al., 2024,
Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportCamacho McCluskey K, Hanna R, Rhodes A, 2024,
EFL briefing paper - Net Zero skills
, Net Zero skills - jobs, skills and training for the net-zero energy transition, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThis briefing paper investigates the evidence for Net-Zero job skills and training requirements in the UK’s energy system. Through an extensive literature review and 10 expert interviews, it analyses how the skills landscape is adapting to support the growth of low-carbon energy sectors, including both supply and end-use. The paper identifies ongoing barriers and opportunities for expanding low-carbon job competencies, culminating in a set of policy recommendations to create clear, inclusive training pathways into low-carbon energy jobs.Using three sectoral case studies, the paper investigates challenges and opportunities for improving skills and training supply and demand for low-carbon energy careers. The building energy retrofit sector faces a significant shortage of skilled workers, particularly in heat pump installation, energy efficiency measures, retrofit coordination, and digital roles. Despite the potential to create 120,000–230,000 new jobs by 2030, inconsistent policies and funding have hindered private investment in training. The offshore wind sector is forecast to employ over 100,000 workers in 2030, compared to 32,000 in 2022. Offshore wind struggles with skills gaps in electrical, digital, consenting, and marine roles, relying on experienced workers and those from other industries to fill these gaps. The electric vehicles sector could generate at least 80,000 new jobs over the next 10-15 years, contingent on gigafactory development, with key skills needed in charging point installation, vehicle recycling, battery manufacturing, and electrification engineering.The paper concludes by proposing the establishment of a Net-Zero Skills Commission to co-ordinate a new, national Net-Zero skills strategy involving multiple stakeholders and considering regional, local and sectoral needs. The Commission would review existing occupational standards for Net-Zero jobs, analyse and identify ongoing and emerging skills gaps, and provide expert advice on i
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Journal articleChen W, Garcia AN, Phillips E, et al., 2024,
Quantifying remediation of chlorinated volatile compounds by sulfidated nano zerovalent iron treatment using numerical modeling and CSIA.
, Water Res, Vol: 263Sulfidated nanoscale zerovalent iron (S-nZVI) has demonstrated promising reactivity and longevity for remediating chlorinated volatile compounds (cVOC) contaminants in laboratory tests. However, its effectiveness in field applications remains inadequately evaluated. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the long-term effectiveness of carboxymethyl cellulose-stabilized S-nZVI (CMC-S-nZVI) at a cVOC-contaminated field site. A reactive transport model-based numerical approach delineates the change in cVOC concentrations and carbon isotope values (i.e., δ13C from compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA)) caused by dissolution of dense non-aqueous phase liquid, sorption, and pathway-specific degradation and production, respectively. This delineation reveals quantitative insights into remediation effectiveness typically difficult to obtain, including extent of degradation, contributions of different degradation pathways, and degradation rate coefficients. Significantly, even a year after CMC-S-nZVI application, degradation remains an important process effectively removing various cVOC contaminants (i.e., chlorinated ethenes, 1,2-dichloroethanes, and chlorinated methanes) at an extent varying from 5 %-62 %. Although the impacts of CMC-S-nZVI abundance on degradation vary for different cVOC and for different sampling locations at the site, for the primary site contaminants of tetrachloroethene and trichloroethene, their predominance of dichloroelimination pathway (≥ 88 %), high degradation rate coefficient (0.4-1.7 d-1), and occurrence at locations with relatively high CMC-S-nZVI abundance strongly indicate the effectiveness of abiotic remediation. These quantitative assessments support that CMC-S-nZVI supports sustainable ZVI-based remediation. Further, the novel numerical approach presented in this study provides a powerful tool for quantitative cVOC remediation assessments at complex field sites where multiple processes co-occur to con
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ReportIqbal M, 2024,
Fusion Before 2050: A net zero future powered by fusion? New possibilities for realising nuclear fusion before 2050
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ReportKimutai J, Vautard R, Zachariah M, et al., 2024,
Climate change and high exposure increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportBird J, Wittke I, 2024,
Climate Change Adaptation: Priority Research Areas
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