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Journal articleLi S, Chen L, Deng S, et al., 2024,
Benchmarking heat-driven adsorption carbon pumps (HACP): A thermodynamic perspective
, Carbon Capture Science and Technology, Vol: 13Benchmarking is pivotal in standardizing industrial devices, leading to notable performance enhancements in fields such as heating pump air conditioning, photovoltaic devices, and more. The significance of treating the CO<inf>2</inf> capture system in small/medium size was emphasized in this work as a standalone device from a thermodynamic perspective, which facilitates the creation of a comprehensive benchmarking methodology. In this study, we studied the heat-driven adsorption carbon pump (HACP) as a typical case for benchmarking. The benchmarking methodology proposed is structured through a five-step process: defining boundaries, determining indicators, establishing calculation processes, collecting and analyzing data, and ultimately evaluating and optimizing performance. By utilizing thermodynamic principles, the energy efficiency of HACP devices was assessed. Through the combination of standardized tests and theoretical calculations, this work enables a quantitative evaluation of energy consumption and the thermodynamic perfection of specific HACP devices.
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Journal articleSavage T, del Rio Chanona A, Oluleye G, 2024,
Assessing robust policies for the adoption of low-carbon technologies under uncertainty
, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 482, ISSN: 0959-6526Increasing the adoption of alternative technologies is vital to ensure a successful transition to net-zero emissions in the manufacturing sector. However, existing models are limited in their ability to analyse technology adoption and the impact of policy interventions in generating sufficient demand to reduce cost in the face of uncertainty. Such a model is vital for assessing policy-instruments for the implementation of future uncertain energy scenarios. We formulate a novel robust market potential assessment problem under uncertainty to support low carbon technology adoption, resulting in policies that are more immune to uncertain factors. We demonstrate two case studies: the potential use of carbon capture and storage for iron and steel production across the EU, and the transition to hydrogen from natural gas in steam boilers across the chemicals industry in the UK. We show that when parameters are jointly 5% uncertain, the robust policy for CCUS adoption results in a 40% increase in cost. Each robust optimisation problem is solved using an iterative cutting planes algorithm which enables existing models to be solved under uncertainty. By taking advantage of parallelisation we are able to solve the nonlinear robust market assessment problem for technology adoption in times within the same order of magnitude as the nominal problem. Our model demonstrates the possibility of locating robust policies for the implementation of low-carbon technologies, as well as providing direct insights for policy-makers into the decrease in policy effectiveness that results from increasing robustness. The approach we present is extensible to a large number of alternative technology adoption problems under uncertainty.
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Journal articleVineis P, Mangone L, Belesova K, et al., 2024,
Integration of multiple climate change mitigation actions and health co-benefits: a framework using the Global Calculator
, Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol: 132, ISSN: 0091-6765Background:The Global Calculator is an open-source model of the world’s energy, land, and food systems. It is a pioneering online calculator to project the impact of interventions to mitigate climate change on global temperature. A few studies have been conducted to evaluate the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation, though they are still fragmentary.Objectives:Our objectives are to identify which sectors could yield the greatest results in terms of climate change mitigation and suggest whether existing evidence could be used to weight mitigation actions based on their ancillary impacts on human health or health co-benefits.Methods:Using the International Energy Agency (IEA) 4DS scenario as a referent (i.e., the “4-degree Celsius increase scenario”), we simulated changes in different policy “levers” (encompassing 43 potential technological and behavioral interventions, grouped by 14 sectors) and assessed the relative importance of each lever in terms of changes in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and cumulative emissions by 2100. In addition, we examined existing estimates for the health co-benefits associated with different interventions, using evidence from the Lancet Pathfinder and four other tools.Discussion:Our simulations suggest that—after accounting for demographic change—transition from fossil fuels to renewables and changes in agriculture, forestry, land use, and food production are key sectors for climate change mitigation. The role of interventions in other sectors, like carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power, is more modest. Our work also identifies mitigation actions that are likely to have large health co-benefits, including shifts to renewable energy and changes in land use as well as dietary and travel behaviors. In conclusion, some of the sectors/interventions which have been at the center of policy debate (e.g., CCS or nuclear power) are likely to be far less important than chan
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Journal articleThomas A, Theokritoff E, 2024,
Adaptation constraints, limits and enabling conditions in small island developing states
, CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 71, ISSN: 1877-3435 -
Working paperBird J, Hope G, Smith S, et al., 2024,
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
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Working paperRogelj J, Lamboll R, Jennifer B, 2024,
Limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
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Journal articleLiu L, Zhou Z, Liu Y, et al., 2024,
Lattice matching strategy in Cu-based oxides for large-scale and long-term thermochemical energy storage
, Energy Storage Materials, Vol: 73Redox-active metal oxides, particularly Cu-based oxide, are noteworthy for their economic feasibility and potential as a recyclable, zero-carbon energy source. These materials are poised to serve as a sustainable solution for large-scale and long-term thermochemical energy storage (TCES), thereby mitigating the intermittency challenges inherent in renewable energy systems. However, a significant impediment to their performance is the materials sintering at elevated temperatures, which precipitate a decline in cyclic reversibility, often manifesting even within the initial cycle of operation. To counteract this limitation, we proposed an innovative approach that leverages the concept of lattice matching, augmented by the incorporation of cigarette butts in the synthesis process to fabricate a Cu-Ce heterogeneous interface. This matched lattice preserved the integrity of the TCES material's porous architecture. Additionally, the lattice oxygen within this composite exhibits a transferability. Even after a prolonged period of two years under ambient air conditions, the TCES material retains the capacity to discharge a remarkable 99.4 % of its adsorbed energy. Furthermore, over the course of 600 cycles, the system's stability is remarkably preserved at 98–100 %, and reversible loss of pure CuO is ∼40 % within the initial cycle. Given these attributes, this TCES material emerges as a promising candidate for industrial applications.
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ReportOtto F, Clarke B, Barnes C, et al., 2024,
10 years of rapidly disentangling drivers of extreme weather disasters
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleHolm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2024,
Deterministic and stochastic geometric mechanics for Hall magnetohydrodynamics
, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, Vol: 480, ISSN: 1364-5021 -
ReportPinto I, Clarke B, Philip S, et al., 2024,
Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Working paperPopovic I, 2024,
Spotlight on COP29: scaling up private climate finance in developing countries
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Working paperFoster V, Brandmayr C, 2024,
Transitioning away from fossil fuels: delivering the transition in low- and lower middle-income fossil fuel producing countries
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Working paperJennings N, Lawrance E, Dorigatti I, 2024,
How does climate change affect people's health in the UK?
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Working paperTheokritoff E, 2024,
Can we adapt to all current and future climate impacts?
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Working paperBakkaloglu S, Rogelj J, Lamboll R, 2024,
Methane and global climate goals
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ReportZachariah M, Jha R, Mondal A, et al., 2024,
Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Working paperKhourdajie AA, Bataille C, Bird J, 2024,
Phasing out 'unabated fossil fuels': the importance of defining 'abatement'
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Journal articleSchleussner C-F, Ganti G, Lejeune Q, et al., 2024,
Overconfidence in climate overshoot
, Nature, Vol: 634, Pages: 366-373, ISSN: 0028-0836Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.
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ReportClarke B, Barnes C, Sparks N, et al., 2024,
Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportIqbal M, 2024,
Fusion Before 2050: A net zero future powered by fusion? New possibilities for realising nuclear fusion before 2050
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ReportKimutai J, Vautard R, Zachariah M, et al., 2024,
Climate change and high exposure increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportBird J, Wittke I, 2024,
Climate Change Adaptation: Priority Research Areas
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Journal articleYang Q, Tong S, Tong Z, et al., 2024,
Ash fouling characteristic analysis and prediction for pillow plate heat exchanger in waste heat recovery based on attentive-feature decision algorithm
, Fuel, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0016-2361Ash fouling on heat exchanger surfaces in waste heat recovery and utilization is an inevitable result of solid fuel combustion and particle deposition, affecting the efficiency, availability and operating cost of an energy utilization system. Fouling prediction plays a critical role in reasonable design and efficient operation of heat exchangers. However, credible monitoring and accurate prognostic towards fouling condition always remain a challenge, largely due to the complex flue gas component and abominable service environment of heat exchangers. In this paper, a novel ash fouling prediction method combined with Effective Particle Size Filtering and Multistep Attentive-Feature Decision algorithm (EF-MAFD) for Pillow Plate Heat Exchanger (PPHE) is proposed. First, a numerical fouling model with Discrete Phase Model (DPM) combined particle deposition and removal model is developed. Validation work is conducted on Nusselt number, pressure drop coefficient and normal restitution coefficient with existing experimental data. The effect of geometrical configuration of PPHE and condition on the fouling characteristic is then evaluated with this model. Next, the EF-MAFD ash fouling prediction model is established, in which the initial particle size distribution is transformed into an effective diameter innovatively and two indicators evaluating the fouling state, namely critical fouling resistance and critical fouling time are defined and predicted. The results indicate that fouling mainly occurs downstream of the welding spots and shows an asymptotic growing trend over time. PPHE with smaller diameter of welding spot, channel height and pitch ratio possess anti-fouling potential. In comparison to existing methods, the newly developed EF-MAFD method has the capacity to deal effectively with the complex particle distribution and provides the most satisfying prediction ability with coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) of 0.93 and mean absolute prediction
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ReportZachariah M, Fioravanti G, Acosta Navarro JC, et al., 2024,
Climate change key driver of extreme drought in water scarce Sicily and Sardinia
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportBecker M, 2024,
Addressing the Scope 3 Challenge - a workshop briefing from researchers working on corporate climate action and governance
The Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the Environment teamed up with Oxford Net Zero to convene a set of workshops bringing together academics and other experts to discuss issues related to the assessment and mitigation of scope 3 emissions. This briefing sets out the themes arising from workshop discussions on how standard setting bodies such as SBTi might approach scope 3.
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Journal articleBoran I, Pettorelli N, Koberle AC, et al., 2024,
Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience
, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, Vol: 159, ISSN: 1462-9011 -
Journal articleLau KH, Toumi R, 2024,
On the spirality of the asymmetric rain field of tropical cyclones under vertical wind shear
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 51, ISSN: 0094-8276The downshear-left enhancement of tropical cyclone rainfall has been demonstrated previously, but the radial dependence of this effect was not analyzed in detail. This study quantifies the progressive upwind shift of the wavenumber-1 maximum rain position with radius relative to the vertical wind shear direction. This shift is visualized as a distinctive upwind spiral of the maximum. It is shown that this spiral pattern is generally observed across various storm intensities, shear strength, and ocean basins. Detailed examination revealed that the maximum downwind deflection angle of the wavenumber-1 rain maximum relative to the shear direction is smaller for tropical storms than hurricanes, but insensitive to hurricane intensity. It is proposed that the spirality is produced by a continuous decline in angular advection of air parcels with radius. The stability of the deflection angle in hurricanes may be accounted for by a corresponding increase in vertical ascent under strengthening angular flow.
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ReportClarke B, Zachariah M, Barnes C, et al., 2024,
Climate change increased Typhoon Gaemi's wind speeds and rainfall, with devastating impacts across the western Pacific region
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportZachariah M, T CS R D T A, Barnes C, et al., 2024,
Landslide-triggering rainfall made more intense by human-induced climate change, devastating highly vulnerable communities in northern Kerala
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleZhong G, Lin Z, Liu F, et al., 2024,
Toxicokinetics and Mussel Watch: Addressing Interspecies Differences for Coastal Cadmium Contamination Assessment
, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 58, Pages: 14618-14628, ISSN: 0013-936X
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