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• Report
  Kimutai J, Barnes C, Masambaya F, Pinto I, Mwai Z, Wangari H, Ogega OM, Kilavi M, Vahlberg M, Arrighi J, Raju E, Baumgart N, Otto F, Zachariah M, Philip S, Singh R, Jjemba E, Mawanda Set al., 2024,

  Urban planning at the heart of increasingly severe East African flood impacts in a warming world

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Kew SF, McCarthy M, Ryan C, Pirret JSR, Murtagh E, Vahlberg M, Amankona A, Pope JO, Lott F, Claydon O, Coonan B, Pinto I, Barnes C, Philip S, Otto F, Wallace E, Bryant L, Tranter E, Singh R, Mijic Aet al., 2024,

  Autumn and Winter storms over UK and Ireland are becoming wetter due to climate change

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Zachariah M, Clarke B, Vahlberg M, Pereira Marghidan C, Singh R, Sengupta S, Otto F, Pinto I, Mistry M, Arrighi J, Gale S, Rodriguez Let al., 2024,

  Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across large parts of Asia more frequent and extreme

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Journal article
  Syafina P, Oluleye G, 2024,

  A comparative assessment of policy induced diffusion pathways for utility scale solar PV: case study of Indonesia

  , Frontiers in Sustainable Energy Policy, Vol: 3, ISSN: 2813-4982

  Lack of effective policies hinder the uptake of Utility-scale solar PV, even though they are projected to play a pivotal role in achieving Indonesia’s 2050 net-zero energy target. This study seeks to identify a cost-effective pathway to increase the capacity of utility-scale solar PV in Indonesia through supportive policies that ensure equitable cost distribution between the government and industry. A novel Market Penetration Optimization Model is developed and applied in simulation mode to assess existing policies, and optimization mode to determine new policy recommendations and compare three policy induced diffusion pathways. Results show that current price-based policies are insufficient to stimulate growth in the solar PV market, only covering approximately 13% of the investment cost required by the industry. Thus, necessitating a reactivation of Feed-in-Tariffs. The optimal tariffs rates required range from 0.39 to 1.47 cents /kWh for the most economic pathway during the initial ten-year post-construction period. The Innovation Diffusion Theory-based pathway necessitates the lowest initial investment cost while yielding the highest revenue from electricity sales, demonstrating its superior cost-effectiveness compared to both the supply-based and linear pathways. This study enriches the literature by exploring the financial implications of policy induced diffusion pathways.

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• Journal article
  Akkiraju K, Rao R, Hwang J, Giordano L, Wang XR, Crumlin E, Weinberger DS, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2024,

  Regulating Oxygen Activity of Perovskites to Promote Activity and Selectivity for Methanol Oxidation to Formaldehyde

  , ACS CATALYSIS, Vol: 14, Pages: 7649-7663, ISSN: 2155-5435
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• Report
  Barnes C, Paton S, Stallard RF, de Lima H, Clarke B, Vahlberg M, Sivanu S, Amakona A, Izquierdo K, Otto F, Zachariah M, Philip S, Mistry M, Singh R, Arrighi Jet al., 2024,

  Low water levels in Panama Canal due to increasing demand exacerbated by El Niño event

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Journal article
  Lewis-Brown E, Jennings N, Mills M, Ewers Ret al., 2024,

  Comparison of carbon management and emissions of universities that did and did not adopt voluntary carbon offsets

  , Climate Policy, Vol: 24, Pages: 706-722, ISSN: 1469-3062

  The urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, remove carbon from the atmosphere and stabilize natural carbon sinks has led to the development of many carbon management measures, increasingly including voluntary carbon offsets (VCOs). We studied carbon management in universities, institutions with large carbon footprints and considerable influence in climate science and policy fora. However, concerns that VCOs may deter adopters (including universities) from adopting other carbon reduction measures and limit emissions reductions, for example, through moral hazard, have been raised but understudied. We compared the carbon management characteristics (priorities, policies, practices and emissions) of universities that did and did not adopt VCOs. We found adopters measured carbon emissions for longer, and had set targets to reach net zero earlier than had non-adopters. Adopters of VCOs also undertook more carbon management practices in both 2010 and 2020 than non-adopters. We also found that both adopters and non-adopters significantly increased their carbon management practices over the decade studied, but with no difference between groups. Gross CO2 emissions were reduced significantly over time by adopters of VCOs but not by non-adopters, whereas carbon intensity and percentage annual emissions reductions did not relate to adoption status. Consequently, our study showed no indication of mitigation deterrence due to adoption of VCOs at the universities studied. Rather, greater emissions reductions correlated with earlier net zero target dates, and a higher number of policies and carbon management practices. However, our study was constrained to universities that were affiliated with a national environmental network, so research beyond these organizations, and with individuals, would be useful. The survey was voluntary, exposing the study to potential self-selection bias so the findings may not be generalized beyond the study group. Finally, we found the carbon ac

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• Journal article
  Zhou L, Liu F, Achterberg EP, Engel A, Campbell PGC, Fortin C, Huang L, Tan Yet al., 2024,

  Promoting effects of aluminum addition on chlorophyll biosynthesis and growth of two cultured iron‐limited marine diatoms

  , Limnology and Oceanography, Vol: 69, Pages: 1157-1171, ISSN: 0024-3590

  <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Aluminum (Al) may play a role in the ocean's capacity for absorbing atmospheric CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> via influencing carbon fixation, export, and sequestration. Aluminum fertilization, especially in iron (Fe)‐limited high‐nutrient, low‐chlorophyll ocean regions, has been proposed as a potential CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> removal strategy to mitigate global warming. However, how Al addition would influence the solubility and bioavailability of Fe as well as the physiology of Fe‐limited phytoplankton has not yet been examined. Here, we show that Al addition (20 and 100 nM) had little influence on the Fe solubility in surface seawater and decreased the Fe bio‐uptake by 11–22% in Fe‐limited diatom <jats:italic>Thalassiosira weissflogii</jats:italic> in Fe‐buffered media. On the other hand, the Al addition significantly increased the rate of chlorophyll biosynthesis by 45–60% for Fe‐limited <jats:italic>T. weissflogii</jats:italic> and 81–102% for Fe‐limited <jats:italic>Thalassiosira pseudonana</jats:italic>, as well as their cell size, cellular chlorophyll content, photosynthetic quantum efficiency (<jats:italic>F</jats:italic><jats:sub>v</jats:sub>/<jats:italic>F</jats:italic><jats:sub>m</jats:sub>) and growth rate. Under Fe‐sufficient conditions, the Al addition still led to an increased growth rate, though the beneficial effects of Al addition on chlorophyll biosynthesis were no longer apparent. These results suggest that Al may facilitate chlorophyll biosynthesis and benefit the photosynthetic efficiency and growth of Fe‐limited diatoms. We speculate that Al addition may enhance intracellular Fe use efficiency for chlorophyll biosynthesis by facilitating the superoxide‐mediated intracellular reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II). Our study provides new evidence and support for the

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• Report
  Zachariah M, Kimutai J, Barnes C, Gryspeerdt E, Seneviratne SI, Almazroui M, Vautard R, Zhang X, Pinto I, Vahlberg M, Sengupta S, Saeed F, Otto F, Clarke B, Philip S, Lohmann U, Wernli H, Mistry M, El Hajj R, Singh R, Arrighi Jet al., 2024,

  Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms

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• Journal article
  Sparks N, Toumi R, 2024,

  The Imperial College Storm model (IRIS) dataset

  , Scientific Data, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2052-4463

  Assessing tropical cyclone risk on a global scale given the infrequency of landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) and the short period of reliable observations remains a challenge. Synthetic tropical cyclone datasets can help overcome these problems. Here we present a new global dataset created by IRIS, the ImpeRIal college Storm model. IRIS is novel because, unlike other synthetic TC models, it only simulates the decay from the point of lifetime maximum intensity. This minimises the bias in the dataset. It takes input from 42 years of observed tropical cyclones and creates a 10,000 year synthetic dataset of wind speed which is then validated against the observations. IRIS captures important statistical characteristics of the observed data. The return periods of the landfall maximum wind speed are realistic globally.

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• Journal article
  Kwon S, Stoerzinger KA, Rao R, Qiao L, Goddard III WA, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2024,

  Facet-Dependent Oxygen Evolution Reaction Activity of IrO₂ from Quantum Mechanics and Experiments

  , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 11719-11725, ISSN: 0002-7863
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• Report
  Halkyard S, Levey S, Amer H, Brogan C, Butler L, Cannon C, Davenport F, Duncan C, Dunning H, Evanson D, Ford P, Fredenburgh J, Gokdemir T, Govan E, Heyburn J, Jennings N, Johns S, Kuchapski N, McNally C, Mundell I, Murphy V, Ross P, Silverman D, Singleton L, Taylor J, A Thousand Monkeys, Wilson J, Wynton Let al., 2024,

  Grantham Institute Outlook 2023-2024

  , www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham

  The Grantham Institute Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.

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• Journal article
  Riou J, Panczak R, Konstantinoudis G, Egger Met al., 2024,

  Area-level excess mortality in times of COVID-19 in Switzerland: geographical, socioeconomic and political determinants

  , EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 34, Pages: 415-417, ISSN: 1101-1262
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• Journal article
  Zhu L, Atoufi A, Lefauve A, Kerswell RR, Linden PFet al., 2024,

  Long-wave instabilities of sloping stratified exchange flows

  , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 983, ISSN: 0022-1120
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  • Citations: 3
• Journal article
  Liang C, Katayama Y, Tao Y, Morinaga A, Moss B, Celorrio V, Ryan M, Stephens IEL, Durrant JR, Rao RRet al., 2024,

  Role of Electrolyte pH on Water Oxidation for Iridium Oxides

  , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 8928-8938, ISSN: 0002-7863
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• Journal article
  Patel DN, Matalon P, Oluleye G, 2024,

  A novel temporal mixed-integer market penetration model for cost-effective uptake of electric boilers in the UK chemical industry

  , Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 446, ISSN: 0959-6526

  The UK chemical industry is the largest consumer of natural gas for process heating and power generation, with an annual consumption of 26.3 TWh. Reduction in natural gas consumption and associated carbon emissions can be achieved through electrification of heat. However, the adoption of electric boilers is lethargic due to economic barriers. Hence, market-based policy interventions are required. This study aims to accelerate the adoption of electric boilers in the UK's chemical industry, aligning with the UK's ambitious 2035 industrial decarbonisation goals while considering economic impacts, by designing market-based policy interventions and comparing two adoption patterns. A novel multi-period Mixed-Integer Market Penetration Optimisation Model is developed and applied to inform decisions about transitioning from natural gas to electric boilers. The model is applied to a case study of all the heating systems (490 boilers) in the UK chemical industry from 1 MW to 60 MW boilers. Results show that effectively implementing a gas tax, electricity subsidy, annual grant and carbon tax can generate sufficient demand-pull to reduce the cost of electric boilers from 30 to 85 % depending on the boiler size. A carbon tax starting at £280 per tCO2e and reducing to £170 per tCO2e coupled with electricity subsidies is essential for this transition. The policies are designed such that a win-win is achieved between government and industry; specifically, revenue from the carbon tax and gas tax is used to support the grant and electricity subsidy thereby achieving cost neutrality for government. At 100 % uptake of electric boilers in 2033, the total carbon emissions reduce by 89 %, which is above the 2035 UK industry goal of 60 % reduction. The research establishes a robust policy timeline that can drive industrial electrification in the UK's chemical sector. It highlights the need for a multi-faceted approach, incorporating various policy instruments to overcome the ba

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• Journal article
  Moss B, Svane KL, Nieto-Castro D, Rao RR, Scott SB, Tseng C, Sachs M, Pennathur A, Liang C, Oldham LI, Mazzolini E, Jurado L, Sankar G, Parry S, Celorrio V, Dawlaty JM, Rossmeisl J, Galan-Mascaros JR, Stephens IEL, Durrant JRet al., 2024,

  Cooperative Effects Drive Water Oxidation Catalysis in Cobalt Electrocatalysts through the Destabilization of Intermediates

  , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 8915-8927, ISSN: 0002-7863
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• Report
  Pinto I, Odoulami RC, Lawal KA, Olaniyan E, Ibrahim WA, Guigma K, Vahlberg M, Heinrich D, Marghidan CP, Vogel M, Arrighi J, Barnes C, Otto F, Philip S, Mistry M, Sengupta S, Kew S, Kimutai Jet al., 2024,

  Dangerous humid heat in southern West Africa about 4°C hotter due to climate change

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• Journal article
  Qian J, Hu T, Xiong H, Cao X, Liu F, Gosnell KJ, Xie M, Chen R, Tan Q-Get al., 2024,

  Turbid Waters and Clearer Standards: Refining Water Quality Criteria for Coastal Environments by Encompassing Metal Bioavailability from Suspended Particles

  , ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 58, Pages: 5244-5254, ISSN: 0013-936X
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• Journal article
  Lefauve A, Couchman MMP, 2024,

  Data-driven classification of sheared stratified turbulence from experimental shadowgraphs

  , PHYSICAL REVIEW FLUIDS, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2469-990X
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  • Citations: 5
• Report
  Ersoz A, Rhodes A, 2024,

  Delivering our future power system - an Energy Futures Lab briefing paper

  , Delivering Our Future Power System - An Energy Futures Lab Briefing Paper
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• Journal article
  Guo C, Benzie P, Hu S, de Nijs B, Miele E, Elliott E, Arul R, Benjamin H, Dziechciarczyk G, Rao RR, Ryan MP, Baumberg JJet al., 2024,

  Extensive photochemical restructuring of molecule-metal surfaces under room light

  , NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 15
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• Journal article
  Liu F, Toumi R, Zhang H, Chen Det al., 2024,

  Impact of precipitation on ocean responses during a tropical cyclone

  , Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol: 54, Pages: 895-909, ISSN: 0022-3670

  Precipitation plays a crucial role in modulating upper-ocean salinity and the formation of the barrier layer, which affects the development of tropical cyclones (TCs). This study performed idealized simulations to investigate the influence of precipitation on the upper ocean. Precipitation acts to suppress the wind-induced sea surface reduction and generates an asymmetric warming response with a rightward bias. There is substantial vertical change with a cooling anomaly in the subsurface, which is about 3 times larger than the surface warming. The mean tropical cyclone heat potential is locally increased, but the net effect across the cyclone footprint is small. The impact of precipitation on the ocean tends to saturate for extreme precipitation, suggesting a nonlinear feedback. A prevailing driver of the model behavior is that the freshwater flux from precipitation strengthens the stratification and increases current shear in the upper ocean, trapping more kinetic energy in the surface layer and subsequently weakening near-inertial waves in the deep ocean. This study highlights the competing roles of TC precipitation and wind. Because the TC category is weaker than category 3, the warming anomaly is caused by reduced vertical mixing, whereas for stronger storms, the advection process is most important.

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• Report
  Jennings N, Paterson P, Whitmarsh L, Howarth Cet al., 2024,

  What do the UK public think about the co-benefits that climate action can bring?

  This slide deck summarises findings from a nationally representative sample (on the basis of age, gender and ethnicity) of 1,021 people who were asked to share their opinions about the co-benefits of climate action. People were surveyed via the online survey platform Prolific on Monday 12th February 2024. The headline findings and recommendations are followed by a case study focused on homes that are more affordable to heat. The insights in this slide deck build on findings from a Grantham report published in October 2023, How do UK citizens perceive the co-benefits of climate action? which included survey and focus groups with members of the UK public.

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• Report
  Zachariah M, Clarke B, Barnes C, Kimutai J, Sivanu S, Ybañez RL, Otto F, Philip S, Arrighi J, Falk K, Cruz FA, Avila F, Olaguera LM, Petilla CEet al., 2024,

  More effective early flood warning needed in exposed communities to reduce loss of lives with increasing heavy rainfall in Mindanao Island, southern Philippines

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Clarke B, Thorne P, Ryan C, Zachariah M, Murphy C, McCarthy G, O'Connor P, Eresanya EO, Cahill N, Coonan B, Otto Fet al., 2024,

  Climate change made the extreme 2-day rainfall event associated with flooding in Midleton, Ireland more likely and more intense

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Journal article
  Zhu L, Jiang X, Lefauve A, Kerswell RR, Linden PFet al., 2024,

  New insights into experimental stratified flows obtained through physics-informed neural networks

  , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 981, ISSN: 0022-1120
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• Report
  Kimutai J, Carrasco-Escaff T, Garreaud RD, Zachariah M, Barnes C, Libonati R, Keeping T, Villarroel Jiménez C, Muñoz Bravo F, Boisier JP, Santos Vega M, Vahlberg M, Sengupta S, Otto F, Clarke B, Munoz A, Rojas Corradi M, Mistry M, Philip S, Kew Set al., 2024,

  Despite known coastal cooling trend, risk of deadly wildfires in central Chile increasing with changing land management in a warming climate

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• Journal article
  Sietsma AJ, Theokritoff E, Biesbroek R, Canosa IV, Thomas A, Callaghan M, Minx JC, Ford JDet al., 2024,

  Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

  , ONE EARTH, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2590-3330
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  • Citations: 12
• Journal article
  Lawrance EL, Massazza A, Pantelidou I, Le Vay JN, El Omrani O, Lawrance E, Nabarro D, Otto F, Jennings N, Rao M, Meinsma N, Howitt P, Sakalauskas D, Curl M, Bailey M, Suarez P, Meyer R, Whitton S, Guinto RR, Aruta JJB, Maharaj S, Greaves N, Anchang KY, Zeitz L, Wray B, Newman S, Uchendu J, Lekwa H, Olude A, Wright S, Boyce N, Thomson M, Watson C, Hore Ret al., 2024,

  Connecting Climate Minds: a shared vision for the climate change and mental health field

  , NATURE MENTAL HEALTH, Vol: 2, Pages: 121-125
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  • Citations: 7

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