Autumn and winter storms in the UK 2023-24

This briefing paper has also been published individually as a webpage: Autumn and winter storms in the UK 2023-24

Authors: Jennifer Bird, Campaign Manager, Grantham Institute
Reviewers:  Dr Clair Barnes, Imperial College London, Leo Bryant, British Red Cross, and Ellie Murtagh, British Red Cross. 

Media enquiries: grantham.media@imperial.ac.uk
Policy enquiries: j.bird@imperial.ac.uk 

In late 2023 and early 2024, the UK and Ireland experienced a very active storm season. The countries were affected by 13-14 severe storms. Storms Babet, Ciarán, Henk and Isha were some of the most damaging in Ireland and the UK, leading to severe floods, at least 13 deaths, severe damages to homes and infrastructure, power outages, travel cancellations, and loss of crops and livestock.  

This background briefing explains the findings of a rapid attribution analysis produced by World Weather Attribution, alongside the risks of storms, and the policy content of adaptation and resilience to flooding in the UK.

Key points

• Rainfall during autumn and winter storms in the UK and Ireland in 2023/24 was made around 20% more intense by human-caused climate change. 
• The total volume of rainfall experienced over the October 2023 – March 2024 period increased by about 15% compared to the preindustrial climate. 
• Rainfall intensity and volume are expected to continue to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced. 
• A range of factors, including health, economic, social, discrimination and geographic features can impact people’s level of risk from flooding, with risk of harm especially high in cases where multiple risk factors intersect. 
• The Government has not yet set a long-term resilience target for flooding, and policy measures to build resilience have so far fallen short.