Transitioning away from fossil fuels in low- and lower middle-income fossil fuel producing countries

This briefing paper has also been published individually as a webpage: Transitioning away from fossil fuels: delivering the transition in low- and lower middle-income fossil fuel producing countries

Authors: Dr Vivien Foster and Dr Caterina Brandmayr

Media enquiries: grantham.media@imperial.ac.uk  
Research enquiries: v.foster@imperial.ac.uk 
Policy enquiries: c.brandmayr@imperial.ac.uk      

A rapid move away from fossil fuel production and consumption is vital to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal, as highlighted in the latest IPCC assessment.

With the adoption of the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement at the 2023 climate conference, known as COP28, countries have signed up to a commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. Following that high level commitment, the expectation now is for countries to set out concrete plans to make the transition a reality.

This briefing looks at what the transition will entail for low and lower middle-income countries that are current or emerging fossil fuel producers.

Key points  

• Following the commitment at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels, it is imperative that countries set out robust plans to deliver a shift towards clean energy systems and away from fossil fuels production and consumption.
• Depending on their natural resources and economic make up, low and lower middle income countries will have to deliver an economic and a just transition, alongside an energy transition.
• These countries face significant challenges to shifting their energy systems and realigning their economies, including limited access to finance and weak governance.
• A larger scale, more programmatic approach to finance that goes beyond traditional climate finance is needed to enable low and lower middle income fossil fuel producing countries to address these multiple transitions.
• An approach known as Data to deal can help ensure the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions provide a credible plan and effectively signal investment needs to the international finance community.