[Satellite image of four tropical cyclones across the Pacific Ocean on 1 September 2015 (c) NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons, are one of the deadliest and most damaging natural hazards. 

Nearly a billion people live in places that are impacted by tropical cyclones. Since 2000, tropical cyclones have caused more than US$2.4 trillion in damages globally.

The Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) is an innovative project that helps scientists and the public understand the likelihood of a damaging tropical cyclone and the role of climate change in making a tropical cyclone more likely and more intense. 

Learn more

The Imperial College Storm Model explained

Attribution science and the Imperial College Storm Model

Attribution of economic damages from tropical cyclones

 

Explore our attribution studies

Typhoon Fung-wong

The IRIS model estimates that climate change increased Fung-wong's maximum wind speed by 5%, eyewall rain by 10.5% and economic damage in the Philippines by 42%.

Typhoon Kalgaemi

The IRIS model estimates that climate change increased Kalgaemi's maximum wind speed by 3%, eyewall rain by 8.6% and the economic damage in Vietnam by 9%

Hurricane Melissa

The IRIS model estimates that climate change increased the intensity of a hurricane of the type of “Melissa” to an exceptional Category 5 at landfall. A “Melissa” type hurricane at landfall is about four times more likely in the 2025 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Typhoon Ragasa

The IRIS model estimates that climate change uplifted the intensity of a Typhoon of the type “Ragasa” from a weak Category 3 to a strong Category 3 at landfall. A “Ragasa” type typhoon at landfall is about +49% more likely in the 2025 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Tropical Cyclone Chido

The IRIS model estimates that climate change uplifted the intensity of a Tropical Cyclone of the type “Chido" from a Category 3 to Category 4. A “Chido” type is about +40% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Hurricane Milton

The intensity of "Milton" type hurricanes at landfall are about 40% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial time baseline. We also estimate that nearly half of the loss in Florida of a “Milton” type can be attributed to climate change. Find the analysis here.

Hurricane Helene

The intensity of "Helene" type Category 4 hurricanes at landfall was about twice more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial time baseline. We also estimate that nearly half of the loss in Florida of a 'Helene' type Category 4 can be attributed to climate change. Find the analysis here.

Previous studies

January-August 2024

Typhoon Shanshan

A "Shanshan" type typhoon at landfall is about 36% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline.

Typhoon Gaemi

Typhoon Gaemi was a destructive Category 4 West Pacific typhoon. Typhoons reaching Taiwan like Gaemi have become about 50% more likely due to human-caused climate change. 

Hurricane Beryl

Hurricane Beryl was a Category 4 storm that made landfall near Jamaica in July 2024. IRIS estimates that, at landfall, Hurricane Beryl was a once-in-35-year event. 

Contact us

For more information, please contact: grantham.media@imperial.ac.uk.