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  • Journal article
    Ward H, Atchison C, Whitaker M, Ainslie KEC, Elliott J, Okell L, Redd R, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Barclay W, Darzi A, Cooke G, Riley S, Elliott Pet al., 2021,

    SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in England following the first peak of the pandemic.

    , Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2041-1723

    England has experienced a large outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, disproportionately affecting people from disadvantaged and ethnic minority communities. It is unclear how much of this excess is due to differences in exposure associated with structural inequalities. Here we report from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2 (REACT-2) national study of over 100,000 people. After adjusting for test characteristics and re-weighting to the population, overall antibody prevalence is 6.0% (95% CI: 5.8-6.1). An estimated 3.4 million people had developed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 by mid-July 2020. Prevalence is two- to three-fold higher among health and care workers compared with non-essential workers, and in people of Black or South Asian than white ethnicity, while age- and sex-specific infection fatality ratios are similar across ethnicities. Our results indicate that higher hospitalisation and mortality from COVID-19 in minority ethnic groups may reflect higher rates of infection rather than differential experience of disease or care.

  • Journal article
    Aufegger L, Yanar C, Bicknell C, Darzi Aet al., 2021,

    The Risk-Value Trade-Off: Price and Brand information Impact Consumers’ Intentions to Purchase OTC Drugs

    , Journal of Pharmaceutical Policy and Practice
  • Journal article
    Dewa L, Crandell C, Choong E, Jaques J, Bottle R, Kilkenny C, Lawrence-Jones A, Di Simplicio M, Nicholls D, Aylin Pet al.,

    CCopeY: a mixed-methods co-produced study on the mental health status and coping strategies of young people during COVID-19 UK lockdown

    , Journal of Adolescent Health, ISSN: 1054-139X

    PurposeExploring the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on young people’s mental health is an increasing priority. Studies to date are largely surveys and lack meaningful involvement from service users in their design, planning and delivery. The study aimed to examine the mental health status and coping strategies of young people during the first UK COVID-19 lockdown using co-production methodology.MethodsThe mental health status of young people (aged 16-24) in April 2020 was established utilising a sequential explanatory co-produced mixed methods design. Factors associated with poor mental health status including coping strategies were also examined using an online survey and semi-structured interviews.Results30.3% had poor mental health and 10.8% had self-harmed since lockdown. Young people identifying as Black/Black-British ethnicity had the highest increased odds of experiencing poor mental health (odds ratio [OR] 3.688, 95% CI 0.54-25.40). Behavioural disengagement (OR 1.462, 95% CI 1.22-1.76), self-blame (OR 1.307 95% CI 1.10-1.55), and substance use (OR 1.211 95% CI 1.02-1.44) coping strategies, negative affect (OR 1.109, 95% CI 1.07-1.15), sleep problems (OR 0.915 95% CI 0.88-0.95) and conscientiousness personality trait (OR 0.819 95% CI 0.69-0.98) were significantly associated with poor mental health. Three qualitative themes were identified: (1) pre-existing/developed helpful coping strategies employed, (2) mental health difficulties worsened and (3) mental health and non-mental health support needed during and after lockdown.ConclusionPoor mental health is associated with dysfunctional coping strategies. Innovative coping strategies can help other young people cope during and after lockdowns, with digital and school promotion and application.

  • Journal article
    Iqbal F, Lam K, Joshi M, Khan S, Ashrafian H, Darzi Aet al., 2021,

    Clinical outcomes of digital sensor alerting systems in remote monitoring: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    , npj Digital Medicine, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2398-6352

    Advances in digital technologies have allowed remote monitoring and digital alerting systems to gain popularity. Despite this, limited evidence exists to substantiate claims that digital alerting can improve clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to appraise the evidence on the clinical outcomes of digital alerting systems in remote monitoring through a systematic review and meta-analysis. A systematic literature search, with no language restrictions, was performed to identify studies evaluating healthcare outcomes of digital sensor alerting systems used in remote monitoring across all (medical and surgical) cohorts. The primary outcome was hospitalisation; secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS), mortality, emergency department and outpatient visits. Standard, pooled hazard ratio and proportion of means meta-analyses were performed. A total of 33 studies met the eligibility criteria; of which, 23 allowed for a meta-analysis. A 9.6% mean decrease in hospitalisation favouring digital alerting systems from a pooled random effects analysis was noted. However, pooled weighted mean differences and hazard ratios did not reproduce this finding. Digital alerting reduced hospital LOS by a mean difference of 1.043 days. A 3% mean decrease in all-cause mortality from digital alerting systems was noted. There was no benefit of digital alerting with respect to emergency department or outpatient visits. Digital alerts can considerably reduce hospitalisation and length of stay for certain cohorts in remote monitoring. Further research is required to confirm these findings and trial different alerting protocols to understand optimal alerting to guide future widespread implementation.

  • Journal article
    Jones MD, McGrogan A, Raynor DK, Watson MC, Franklin BDet al., 2021,

    User-testing guidelines to improve the safety of intravenous medicines administration: a randomised in situ simulation study

    , BMJ QUALITY & SAFETY, Vol: 30, Pages: 17-26, ISSN: 2044-5415
  • Journal article
    Smalley K, Aufegger L, Flott K, Mayer E, Darzi Aet al., 2021,

    Can self-management programmes change healthcare utilisation in COPD?: A systematic review and framework analysis

    , Patient Education and Counseling, Vol: 104, Pages: 50-63, ISSN: 0738-3991

    ObjectiveThe study aims to evaluate the ability of self-management programmes to change the healthcare-seeking behaviours of people with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), and any associations between programme design and outcomes.MethodsA systematic search of the literature returned randomised controlled trials of SMPs for COPD. Change in healthcare utilisation was the primary outcome measure. Programme design was analysed using the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF).ResultsA total of 26 papers described 19 SMPs. The most common utilisation outcome was hospitalisation (n = 22). Of these, 5 showed a significant decrease. Two theoretical domains were evidenced in all programmes: skills and behavioural regulation. All programmes evidenced at least 5 domains. However, there was no clear association between TDF domains and utilisation. Overall, study quality was moderate to poor.ConclusionThis review highlights the need for more alignment in the goals, design, and evaluation of SMPs. Specifically, the TDF could be used to guide programme design and evaluation in future.Practice implicationsPractices have a reasonable expectation that interventions they adopt will provide patient benefit and value for money. Better design and reporting of SMP trials would address their ability to do so.

  • Journal article
    Danielli S, Donnelly P, Coffey T, Horn S, Ashrafian H, Darzi Aet al., 2020,

    Perspectives Measuring more than just economic growth to improve well-being

    , Journal of Public Health, ISSN: 1741-3842

    It's official: The UK is in a recession. The economy has suffered its biggest slump on record with a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of 20.4%. 1 This is going to have a significant impact on our health and well-being. It risks creating a spiralling decay as we know good health is not only a consequence, but also a condition for sustained and sustainable economic development. 2 In this way, the health of a nation creates a virtuous circle of improved health and improved economic prosperity. How we measure prosperity is therefore important and needs to be considered.

  • Report
    Riley S, Walters C, Wang H, Eales O, Ainslie K, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle PJ, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott Pet al., 2020,

    REACT-1 round 7 updated report: regional heterogeneity in changes in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second national COVID-19 lockdown in England

    , REACT-1 round 7 updated report: regional heterogeneity in changes in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second national COVID-19 lockdown in England, London, Publisher: Imperial College London

    BackgroundEngland exited a four-week second national lockdown on 2nd December 2020 initiated in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior results showed that prevalence dropped during the first half of lockdown, with greater reductions in higher-prevalence northern regions.MethodsREACT-1 is a series of community surveys of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR swab-positivity in England, designed to monitor the spread of the epidemic and thus increase situational awareness. Round 7 of REACT-1 commenced swab-collection on 13th November 2020. A prior interim report included data from 13th to 24th November 2020 for 105,122 participants. Here, we report data for the entire round with swab results obtained up to 3rd December 2020.ResultsBetween 13th November and 3rd December (round 7) there were 1,299 positive swabs out of 168,181 giving a weighted prevalence of 0.94% (95% CI 0.87%, 1.01%) or 94 per 10,000 people infected in the community in England. This compares with a prevalence of 1.30% (1.21%, 1.39%) from 16th October to 2nd November 2020 (round 6), a decline of 28%. Prevalence during the latter half of round 7 was 0.91% (95% CI, 0.81%, 1.03%) compared with 0.96% (0.87%, 1.05%) in the first half. The national R number in round 7 was estimated at 0.96 (0.88, 1.03) with a decline in prevalence observed during the first half of this period no longer apparent during the second half at the end of lockdown. During round 7 there was a marked fall in prevalence in West Midlands, a levelling off in some regions and a rise in London. R numbers at regional level ranged from 0.60 (0.41, 0.80) in West Midlands up to 1.27 (1.04, 1.54) in London, where prevalence was highest in the east and south-east of the city. Nationally, between 13th November and 3rd December, the highest prevalence was in school-aged children especially at ages 13-17 years at 2.04% (1.69%, 2.46%), or approximately 1 in 50.ConclusionBetween the previous round and round 7 (during lockdown), there was a fall in prevalence of SARS-C

  • Journal article
    Joshi M, Ashrafian H, Khan S, Darzi Aet al., 2020,

    Sepsis

    , The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1805-1805, ISSN: 0140-6736
  • Journal article
    Suwa Y, Joshi M, Poynter L, Endo I, Ashrafian H, Darzi Aet al., 2020,

    Obese patients and robotic colorectal surgery: systematic review and meta-analysis

    , BJS Open, Vol: 4, Pages: 1042-1053, ISSN: 2474-9842

    BackgroundObesity is a major health problem, demonstrated to double the risk of colorectal cancer. The benefits of robotic colorectal surgery in obese patients remain largely unknown. This meta‐analysis evaluated the clinical and pathological outcomes of robotic colorectal surgery in obese and non‐obese patients.MethodsMEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Healthcare Management Information Consortium (HMIC) and Midwives Information and Resources Service (MIDIRS) databases were searched on 1 August 2018 with no language restriction. Meta‐analysis was performed according to PRISMA guidelines. Obese patients (BMI 30 kg/m2 or above) undergoing robotic colorectal cancer resections were compared with non‐obese patients. Included outcome measures were: operative outcomes (duration of surgery, conversion to laparotomy, blood loss), postoperative complications, hospital length of stay and pathological outcomes (number of retrieved lymph nodes, positive circumferential resection margins and length of distal margin in rectal surgery).ResultsA total of 131 full‐text articles were reviewed, of which 12 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. There were 3166 non‐obese and 1420 obese patients. A longer duration of surgery was documented in obese compared with non‐obese patients (weighted mean difference −21·99 (95 per cent c.i. −31·52 to −12·46) min; P < 0·001). Obese patients had a higher rate of conversion to laparotomy than non‐obese patients (odds ratio 1·99, 95 per cent c.i. 1·54 to 2·56; P < 0·001). Blood loss, postoperative complications, length of hospital stay and pathological outcomes were not significantly different in obese and non‐obese patients.ConclusionRobotic surgery in obese patients results in a significantly longer duration of surgery and higher conversion rates than in non‐obese patients. Further studies should focus on bette

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