Article at a glance 

• The European Commission (EC) competition authority is scrutinising rival bids for Warner Bros. from Netflix and Paramount, an unusual scenario

• Both bids raise different competition concerns

• A frontrunner could emerge if one bidder gets cleared before the other

• The EC prefers light-touch remedies

• US politics, not Europe, is likely to decide the winner

A bidding saga across the Atlantic

Europe’s competition regulator is simultaneously reviewing competing bids by major US companies Netflix and Paramount to acquire entertainment company Warner Bros. This is unusual and strategically sensitive, given the current geopolitical climate. The bidding saga has attracted significant attention on both sides of the Atlantic. 

Both bids raise competition concerns, but in different ways:

• The Paramount deal would reduce rivalry between two major Hollywood studios.
• Netflix’s acquisition of Warner Bros. would increase market dominance in streaming across Europe

Professor Tommaso Valletti, Professor of Economics at Imperial Business School and former Chief Competition Economist at the EC, questions whether the EC will act boldly, given its preference for light-touch remedies and geopolitical considerations. US politics, not Europe’s regulators, may ultimately decide the winner.

What’s at stake

Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros.’ studios and streaming assets in a transaction valued around $82.7 billion. To challenge this, rival Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid for the entire company, including news network CNN, worth $108 billion, offering shareholders a higher per-share cash price.

The Warner Bros. board backs Netflix, but competition concerns are significant and more complex than the ones associated with Paramount’s bid.

A lack of clear precedent in the EU merger control raises a key question: how will the EC proceed?

Because all three companies operate across Europe and the Americas, the European Commission must review the market implications under its EU merger control framework. A simultaneous review could shape the race. By clearing one bidder, while subjecting the other to a longer investigation, a frontrunner could emerge.

A lack of clear precedent in EU merger control raises a key question: how will the EC proceed? Historically, the regulator tends to favour light-touch remedies, like small divestitures or access commitments, over prohibitions.

Netflix: from scale to market power

Netflix’s story of scale in Europe has shifted to revenue diversification. Netflix already shows signs of pricing power: in the UK, a standard subscription rose from £6 to £13 per month over the past decade. A deal with Warner Bros. would lead to:

• Further market concentration: Netflix already holds over 50 percent of Europe’s subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) market. Combining this with Warner Bros.’ studios, HBO Max and other streaming platforms would increase its dominance.
• Monopolisation of streaming content: Netflix could control one of the largest content libraries and production pipelines in the world, cutting off production for cinemas and other traditional content platforms.

Netflix could address these concerns through remedies such as divesting HBO Max. Its likely defence would be that its streaming services compete with a broader digital entertainment market, including social media and video gaming. Regulators may accept this argument to some extent, although previous merger reviews have generally used a narrower, SVOD-focused market definition.

Paramount: traditional Hollywood rivalry

Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. raises more traditional competition concerns. Combining two established major Hollywood studios would:

• reduce industry rivalry and lead to fewer big players in Hollywood,
• increase bargaining power over distributors, advertisers and creators, and
• potentially lead to fewer market players, less innovation, higher costs for consumers.

The deal would also continue the consolidation of Hollywood studios that has been ongoing for 50 years, reducing the “Big Five” studios (Disney, Warner Bros., Universal, Paramount and Sony) to four. Disney would remain number one, possibly facing stronger competition from the combined entities currently ranked number two (Warner Bros.) and number five (Paramount).

While the merger could be easier to clear overall, overlaps between the studios, for example franchises between Paramount and Warner Bros., could still raise competition concerns that may be harder to address.

Why Europe and the US may decide differently

Whether the EC’s decision will impact the deal remains uncertain. In the US, regulators face a different and more political context. Paramount’s bid would include CNN, which Netflix is not acquiring. President Trump, a vocal critic of CNN, has previously argued that the network should be sold or restructured. These dynamics may influence the outcome.

Given the current political climate, a European ban on either deal seems unlikely. While the EC can still influence the pace and outcome of the bidding war, the winner will ultimately be decided in the US.