@article{Woodward:2016:10.1098/rstb.2015.0274,
author = {Woodward, G and Bonada, N and Brown, LE and Death, RG and Durance, I and Grey, C and Hladyz, S and Ledger, ME and Milner, AM and Ormerod, SJ and Thompson, RM and Pawar, S},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2015.0274},
journal = {Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society B},
title = {The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0274},
volume = {371},
year = {2016}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters hasfocused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuationsor extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floodsor wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Suchevents are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and durationwith global climate change, with many systems being exposed toconditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanisticframework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuationson running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individualsto entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four keycomponents: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolicand biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions,assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of themeta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework bydeveloping a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamicallyassembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empiricalevidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example,widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuationsare: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demandssuch as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of foodweb network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; andreduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of foodweb and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questionsand challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictivebio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications offluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.
AU  - Woodward,G
AU  - Bonada,N
AU  - Brown,LE
AU  - Death,RG
AU  - Durance,I
AU  - Grey,C
AU  - Hladyz,S
AU  - Ledger,ME
AU  - Milner,AM
AU  - Ormerod,SJ
AU  - Thompson,RM
AU  - Pawar,S
DO  - 10.1098/rstb.2015.0274
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 0962-8436
TI  - The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems
T2  - Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0274
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/30891
VL  - 371
ER  - 

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