Energy and Low-Carbon Futures
Expect the unexpected: The disruptive power of low-carbon technology
Type: Collaborative publications
Publication date: February 2017
Achieving climate stability will require deep and widespread changes in the global energy sector. Fossil fuel industry projections, however, continue to present a future energy system that is very similar to that of today. This is in spite of recent examples of disruption in the energy sector at the hands of the low-carbon transition, namely for EU utilities and the US coal sector.
This scenario analysis was produced in partnership between Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and explores the extent to which ongoing cost reductions could see solar photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EVs) impact future demand for coal, oil and gas. The findings of this study should motivate energy companies and their investors to retire the use of business-as-usual scenarios (BAU) and further integrate the consideration of downside demand scenarios.
Following the launch of this report, the Grantham Institute hosted a workshop that convened energy modellers, analysts and researchers from a range of organisations to discuss the changing face of ‘business as usual’ and reference scenarios in energy modelling.
To find out more, download the workshop notes: BAU energy modelling workshop - discussion notes [pdf]