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Journal articleDalder J, Oluleye G, Cannone C, et al., 2024,
Modelling Policy Pathways to Maximise Renewable Energy Growth and Investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Using OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System)
, ENERGIES, Vol: 17 -
Journal articlePaiboonsin P, Oluleye G, Howells M, et al., 2024,
Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia's Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)
, ENERGIES, Vol: 17 -
Journal articleOluleye G, Patel D, Matalon P, et al., 2024,
A novel optimisation framework to design market-based policy interventions for the uptake of alternative fuels in the UK chemical industry
, Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, Vol: 53, Pages: 2089-2094, ISSN: 1570-7946Shifting to clean alternatives like biomethane, green hydrogen, and blue hydrogen for industrial heating offers emission reductions, yet their high costs hinder adoption. There is no systematic way to design policy interventions that enable cost reduction at minimum cost to government and industry. This study aims to formulate and apply a novel multiperiod Mixed-Integer Market Penetration Optimization Model to fill this gap and inform decisions about transitioning to alternative fuels for heating in the UK Chemical Industry. The model cost-effectively designs a policy pathway whilst accounting for the fuel cost reduction due to demand-pull induced learning effects in the policy design. The model is applied to 490 boilers in the UK chemical industry, the model designs effective policy mixes to reduce the cost of green hydrogen by 60%, blue hydrogen by 36%, and green gas biomethane by 17%, with revenue from taxes supporting subsidies for cost neutrality.
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Journal articleJiang X, Atoufi A, Zhu L, et al., 2023,
Geometry of stratified turbulent mixing: local alignment of the density gradient with rotation, shear and viscous dissipation
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 977, ISSN: 0022-1120 -
Journal articleAtoufi A, Zhu L, Lefauve A, et al., 2023,
Stratified inclined duct: Two-layer hydraulics and instabilities
, Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol: 977, ISSN: 0022-1120The stratified inclined duct (SID) sustains an exchange flow in a long, gently sloping duct as a model for continuously forced density-stratified flows such as those found in estuaries. Experiments have shown that the emergence of interfacial waves and their transition to turbulence as the tilt angle is increased appears to be linked to a threshold in the exchange flow rate given by inviscid two-layer hydraulics. We uncover these hydraulic mechanisms by (i) using recent direct numerical simulations (DNS) providing full flow data in the key flow regimes (Zhu et al., J. Fluid Mech., vol. 969, 2023, A20), (ii) averaging these DNS into two layers, and (iii) using an inviscid two-layer shallow-water and instability theory to diagnose interfacial wave behaviour and provide physical insight. The laminar flow is subcritical and stable throughout the duct and hydraulically controlled at the ends of the duct. As the tilt is increased, the flow becomes supercritical everywhere and unstable to long waves. An internal jump featuring stationary waves first appears near the centre of the duct, then leads to larger-amplitude travelling waves, and to stronger jumps, wave breaking and intermittent turbulence at the largest tilt angle. Long waves described by the (nonlinear) shallow-water equation are interpreted locally as linear waves on a two-layer parallel base flow described by the Taylor-Goldstein equation. This link helps us to interpret long-wave instability and contrast it with short-wave (e.g. Kelvin-Helmholtz) instability. Our results suggest a transition to turbulence in SID through long-wave instability relying on vertical confinement by the top and bottom walls.
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ReportKimutai J, Barnes C, Zachariah M, et al., 2023,
Compounding natural hazards and high vulnerability led to severe impacts from Horn of Africa flooding exacerbated by climate change and Indian Ocean Dipole
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Journal articleHon KK, Ballard R, Blake E, et al., 2023,
Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast
, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol: 12, Pages: 323-340, ISSN: 2225-6032Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community. This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres. Since IWTC-9, we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers, typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis, covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead. The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction. While operational practice might differ across agencies, verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability, which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.
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Working paperOtto F, Kimutai J, Bird J, et al., 2023,
Loss and Damage Fund: the need for climate impact metrics
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Journal articleTheokritoff E, van Maanen N, Andrijevic M, et al., 2023,
Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development
, Scientific Reports, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2045-2322Climate change adaptation is paramount, but increasing evidence suggests that adaptation action is subject to a range of constraints. For a realistic assessment of future adaptation prospects, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome these constraints. Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios. We find that even in the most optimistic scenario, it will take until well after 2050 to overcome key constraints, which will limit adaptation for decades to come particularly in vulnerable countries. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our approach allows to ground truth indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts, improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.
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ReportPinto I, Barimalala R, Philip S, et al., 2023,
Extreme poverty renders Madagascar highly vulnerable to underreported extreme heat that would not have occurred without human-induced climate change
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Journal articleHolm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2023,
Lagrangian reduction and wave mean flow interaction
, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol: 454, ISSN: 0167-2789How does one derive models of dynamical feedback effects in multiscale, multiphysics systems such as wave mean flow interaction (WMFI)? We shall address this question for hybrid dynamical systems, defined as systems whose motion can be expressed as the composition of two or more Lie-group actions. Hybrid systems abound in fluid dynamics. Examples include: the dynamics of complex fluids such as liquid crystals; wind-driven waves propagating with the currents moving on the sea surface; turbulence modelling in fluids and plasmas; and classical–quantum hydrodynamic models in molecular chemistry. From among these examples, the motivating question here is: How do wind-driven waves produce ocean surface currents?The paper first summarises the geometric mechanics approach for deriving hybrid models of multiscale, multiphysics motions in ideal fluid dynamics. It then illustrates this approach for WMFI in the examples of 3D WKB waves and 2D wave amplitudes governed by the nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation propagating in the frame of motion of an ideal incompressible inhomogeneous Euler fluid flow. The results for these examples tell us that the mean flow in WMFI does not create waves, although it does transport the waves. However, feedback in the opposite direction is possible, since the 3D WKB and 2D NLS wave dynamics discussed here do in fact create circulatory mean flow.
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Journal articleChen R, Toumi R, Shi X, et al., 2023,
An adaptive learning approach for tropical cyclone intensity correction
, Remote Sensing, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2072-4292Tropical cyclones (TCs) are dangerous weather events; accurate monitoring and forecasting can provide significant early warning to reduce loss of life and property. However, the study of tropical cyclone intensity remains challenging, both in terms of theory and forecasting. ERA5 reanalysis is a benchmark data set for tropical cyclone studies, yet the maximum wind speed error is very large (68 kts) and is still 19 kts after simple linear correction, even in the better sampled North Atlantic. Here, we develop an adaptive learning approach to correct the intensity in the ERA5 reanalysis, by optimising the inputs to overcome the problems caused by the poor data quality and updating the features to improve the generalisability of the deep learning-based model. Specifically, we use understanding of TC properties to increase the representativeness of the inputs so that the general features can be learned with deep neural networks in the sample space, and then use domain adaptation to update the general features from the known domain with historical storms to the specific features for the unknown domain of new storms. This approach can reduce the error to only 6 kts which is within the uncertainty of the best track data in the international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) in the North Atlantic. The method may have wide applicability, such as when extending it to the correction of intensity estimation from satellite imagery and intensity prediction from dynamical models.
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ReportOtto F, Clarke B, Rahimi M, et al., 2023,
Human-induced climate change compounded by socio-economic water stressors increased severity of drought in Syria, Iraq and Iran
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Journal articleChagot L, Hernandez Gelado S, Quilodran-Casas C, 2023,
Enhancing microdroplets image analysis with deep learning
, Micromachines, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2072-666XMicrofluidics is a highly interdisciplinary field where the integration of deep-learning models has the potential to streamline processes and increase precision and reliability. This study investigates the use of deep-learning methods for the accurate detection and measurement of droplet diameters and the image restoration of low-resolution images. This study demonstrates that the Segment Anything Model (SAM) provides superior detection and reduced droplet diameter error measurement compared to the Circular Hough Transform, which is widely implemented and used in microfluidic imaging. SAM droplet detections prove to be more robust to image quality and microfluidic images with low contrast between the fluid phases. In addition, this work proves that a deep-learning super-resolution network MSRN-BAM can be trained on a dataset comprising of droplets in a flow-focusing microchannel to super-resolve images for scales ×2, ×4, ×6, ×8. Super-resolved images obtain comparable detection and segmentation results to those obtained using high-resolution images. Finally, the potential of deep learning in other computer vision tasks, such as denoising for microfluidic imaging, is shown. The results show that a DnCNN model can denoise effectively microfluidic images with additive Gaussian noise up to
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ReportKew S, Pinto I, Alves L, et al., 2023,
Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America
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ReportJennings N, Paterson P, 2023,
How do UK citizens perceive the co-benefits of climate action?
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ReportZachariah M, Kotroni V, Kostas L, et al., 2023,
Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region
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Journal articleToumi R, 2023,
John Edward Harries
, Physics Today, Vol: 76, Pages: 53-53, ISSN: 0031-9228 -
Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Minelli C, Lam HCY, et al., 2023,
Asthma hospitalisations and heat exposure in England: a case-crossover study during 2002-2019
, Thorax, Vol: 78, Pages: 875-881, ISSN: 0040-6376BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between warm temperature and asthma hospitalisation. They have reported different sex-related and age-related vulnerabilities; nevertheless, little is known about how this effect has changed over time and how it varies in space. This study aims to evaluate the association between asthma hospitalisation and warm temperature and investigate vulnerabilities by age, sex, time and space. METHODS: We retrieved individual-level data on summer asthma hospitalisation at high temporal (daily) and spatial (postcodes) resolutions during 2002-2019 in England from the NHS Digital. Daily mean temperature at 1 km×1 km resolution was retrieved from the UK Met Office. We focused on lag 0-3 days. We employed a case-crossover study design and fitted Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models accounting for possible confounders (rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed and national holidays). RESULTS: After accounting for confounding, we found an increase of 1.11% (95% credible interval: 0.88% to 1.34%) in the asthma hospitalisation risk for every 1°C increase in the ambient summer temperature. The effect was highest for males aged 16-64 (2.10%, 1.59% to 2.61%) and during the early years of our analysis. We also found evidence of a decreasing linear trend of the effect over time. Populations in Yorkshire and the Humber and East and West Midlands were the most vulnerable. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of an association between warm temperature and hospital admission for asthma. The effect has decreased over time with potential explanations including temporal differences in patterns of heat exposure, adaptive mechanisms, asthma management, lifestyle, comorbidities and occupation.
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Journal articleZhou L, Liu F, Tan Y, et al., 2023,
Aluminum-induced changes in the net carbon fixation and carbon decomposition of a nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium Trichodesmium erythraeum
, Biogeochemistry, Vol: 165, Pages: 277-290, ISSN: 0168-2563 -
Journal articleTakaya Y, Caron L-P, Blake E, et al., 2023,
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting
, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol: 12, Pages: 182-199, ISSN: 2225-6032Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.
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Journal articleCroasdale K, Grailey K, Jennings N, et al., 2023,
Planning for the perfect storm: perceptions of UK mental health professionals on the increasing impacts of climate change on their service users
, The Journal of Climate Change and Health, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-2782IntroductionClimate change poses a considerable risk of further increasing the world's mental health burden. The ways that, and extent to which, climate change is affecting mental health service users is poorly known. Mental health professionals (MHP)s' views on the nature of climate-related distress and the need for specialist training to support service users is undetermined globally.MethodsA questionnaire survey was disseminated to an opportunity sample of MHPs based in the United Kingdom (UK). It investigated whether MHPs perceived that the number of service users mentioning climate change as affecting their mental health or emotional distress had increased in the five years prior to 2021, and if they believe it will increase further. The survey explored MHPs’ perceptions of the influence of climate change on service users’ mental health needs, if they perceive this to be rational, and if they feel adequately prepared to manage climate change related mental health problems or emotional distress.ResultsWe surveyed 75 MHPs, including professionals in psychotherapy (38), psychology (19), psychiatry (6). MHPs reported a significant increase in the perceived prevalence of mental health problems or emotional distress related to climate change, believing this increase will continue. MHPs reported a range of impacts on service users due to climate change, typically viewed as a rational response. MHPs felt equipped to manage the consequences of climate change but would benefit from specific training.ConclusionsOur results indicate an increasing incidence of climate-related emotional distress among service users as perceived by MHPs. The expectation among professionals is that this service need is here now but will continue to increase in the future, with potential implications for the provision of training.
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Journal articleLi Y, Tang Y, Wang S, et al., 2023,
Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2041-1723Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctuations, variations of global RI events in offshore regions remain uncertain. Here, we show that compared with open oceans, where the annual RI counts do not show significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a significant increase in RI events, with the count tripling from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments present more favorable conditions for this trend, and climate models show that global ocean warming has enhanced such changes. This work yields an important finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue under a future warming climate.
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ReportBarnes C, Boulanger Y, Keeping T, et al., 2023,
Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.
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Journal articleFeng X, Toumi R, Roberts M, et al., 2023,
An approach to link climate model tropical cyclogenesis bias to large-scale wind circulation modes
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 50, ISSN: 0094-8276Attributing sources of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) bias to large-scale circulation in global circulation models is challenging. Here, we propose the use of empirical orthogonal functions as an approach to understand model bias of TCG. Two leading modes of large-scale wind circulations in the West Pacific can explain the TCG frequency and location in both climate reanalysis and the MetUM model. In the reanalysis, the two modes distinguish the summer monsoon trough position and the strength of the north Pacific subtropical high. However, in the model, the wind circulations are biased toward the positive phase of simulated modes thus overestimating TCG in the entire Main Development Region. This bias is further related to the north-eastward shifted monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high, and overly strong tropics-subtropics connections. This approach could be deployed more widely to other basins and models to diagnose the causes of TCG bias.
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Journal articleZhu L, Atoufi A, Lefauve A, et al., 2023,
Stratified inclined duct: Direct numerical simulations
, Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol: 969, ISSN: 0022-1120The stratified inclined duct (SID) experiment consists of a zero-net-volume exchange flow in a long tilted rectangular duct, which allows the study of realistic stratified shear flows with sustained internal forcing. We present the first three-dimensional direct numerical simulations (DNS) of SID to explore the transitions between increasingly turbulent flow regimes first described by Meyer & Linden (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 753, 2014, pp. 242-253). We develop a numerical set-up that faithfully reproduces the experiments and sustains the flow for arbitrarily long times at minimal computational cost. We recover the four qualitative flow regimes found experimentally in the same regions of parameter space: laminar flow, waves, intermittent turbulence and fully developed turbulence. We find good qualitative and quantitative agreement between DNS and experiments and highlight the added value of DNS to complement experimental diagnostics and increase our understanding of the transition to turbulence, both temporally (laminar/turbulent cycles) and parametrically (as the tilt angle of the duct and the Reynolds number are increased). These results demonstrate that numerical studies of SID - and deeper integration between simulations and experiments - have the potential to lead to a better understanding of stratified turbulence.
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Journal articleParks RM, Kontis V, Anderson GB, et al., 2023,
Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States
, Science Advances, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2375-2548Knowledge of excess deaths after tropical cyclones is critical to understanding their impacts, directly relevant to policies on preparedness and mitigation. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to 40.7 million U.S. deaths and a comprehensive record of 179 tropical cyclones over 32 years (1988–2019) to estimate short-term all-cause excess deaths. The deadliest tropical cyclone was Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with 1491 [95% credible interval (CrI): 563, 3206] excess deaths (>99% posterior probability of excess deaths), including 719 [95% CrI: 685, 752] in Orleans Parish, LA (>99% probability). Where posterior probabilities of excess deaths were >95%, there were 3112 [95% CrI: 2451, 3699] total post–hurricane force excess deaths and 15,590 [95% CrI: 12,084, 18,835] post–gale to violent storm force deaths; 83.1% of post–hurricane force and 70.0% of post–gale to violent storm force excess deaths occurred more recently (2004–2019); and 6.2% were in least socially vulnerable counties.
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Journal articleAndrijevic M, Schleussner C-F, Crespo Cuaresma J, et al., 2023,
Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments
, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 778-787, ISSN: 1758-678X -
ReportZachariah M, Philip S, Pinto I, et al., 2023,
Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change
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Journal articleAlford J, Massazza A, Jennings NR, et al., 2023,
Developing global recommendations for action on climate change and mental health across sectors: a Delphi-style study
, The Journal of Climate Change and Health, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-2782Climate change is causing far-reaching yet underappreciated worsening of outcomes across the mental health and wellbeing spectrum. Despite increasing attention to the mental health impacts of climate change, an absence of a clear, cross-sectoral agenda for action has held back progress against the dual and interconnected challenges of supporting human and planetary health. This study aims to serve as an essential first step to address this gap. Harnessing the expertise of a diverse panel of 61 participants, representing 24 nationalities, this study developed and prioritized recommendations for action on climate change and mental health across the relevant sectors of research, policy, healthcare and the third sector, and used a Delphi-style methodology to examine their feasibility and importance. Broadly, the prioritized recommendations highlighted the need to expand the evidence base, work collaboratively across sectors, and raise awareness. While broadly there was consensus on recommendation importance, there was greater variation in the reported feasibility of the recommendations, which differed across settings. Other common themes included the need for cultural and resource contextualization, raising awareness of and addressing mental health co-benefits via climate action, and working with communities with lived experience to develop and implement the findings. As there may be some interdependencies between the recommendations, further work needs to identify how best to implement them. The recommendations serve as a robust and evidence-based framework that can be used as a foundation to devise locally appropriate, concrete implementation strategies matching levels of need and resource. These also serve as a clear call to action for investment from leaders across sectors to ensure they are realized.
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