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  • Journal article
    Pirkle L, 2022,

    Current Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health within UK Parliament

    , Frontiers in Public Health Planetary Health, ISSN: 2296-2565
  • Journal article
    Kotta-Loizou I, 2022,

    Molecular origins of transcriptional heterogeneity in diazotrophic Klebsiella oxytoca

    , mSystems, Vol: 7, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2379-5077

    Phenotypic heterogeneity in clonal bacterial batch cultures has been shown for a range of bacterial systems; however, the molecular origins of such heterogeneity and its magnitude are not well understood. Under conditions of extreme low-nitrogen stress in the model diazotroph Klebsiella oxytoca, we found remarkably high heterogeneity of nifHDK gene expression, which codes for the structural genes of nitrogenase, one key enzyme of the global nitrogen cycle. This heterogeneity limited the bulk observed nitrogen-fixing capacity of the population. Using dual-probe, single-cell RNA fluorescent in situ hybridization, we correlated nifHDK expression with that of nifLA and glnK-amtB, which code for the main upstream regulatory components. Through stochastic transcription models and mutual information analysis, we revealed likely molecular origins for heterogeneity in nitrogenase expression. In the wild type and regulatory variants, we found that nifHDK transcription was inherently bursty, but we established that noise propagation through signaling was also significant. The regulatory gene glnK had the highest discernible effect on nifHDK variance, while noise from factors outside the regulatory pathway were negligible. Understanding the basis of inherent heterogeneity of nitrogenase expression and its origins can inform biotechnology strategies seeking to enhance biological nitrogen fixation. Finally, we speculate on potential benefits of diazotrophic heterogeneity in natural soil environments.
  • Journal article
    Lawrance E, Jennings N, Kioupi V, Thompson R, Diffey J, Vercammen Aet al., 2022,

    Psychological responses, mental health, and sense of agency for the dual challenges of climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic in young people in the UK: an online survey study

    , The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol: 6, Pages: e726-e738, ISSN: 2542-5196

    BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are both significant and pressing global challenges, posing threats to public health and wellbeing. Young people are particularly vulnerable to the distress both crises can cause, but understanding of the varied psychological responses to both issues is poor. We aimed to investigate these responses and their links with mental health conditions and feelings of agency.MethodsWe conducted an online survey between Aug 5 and Oct 26, 2020, targeting a diverse sample of young people (aged 16–24 years, n=530) in the UK. The survey was distributed using a combination of a survey panel (panel sample) and direct approaches to youth groups and schools who shared the survey with young people in their networks (community sample). We collected data on respondents’ psychological responses to both climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, their sense of agency to respond to each crisis, and the range of impacts on their lives. We also collected demographics data and screened for mental health and wellbeing indicators. We used non-parametric tests for most statistical comparisons. For paired samples, we used Wilcoxon's signed-rank test, and used Mann-Whitney U-tests or Kruskal-Wallis tests for two or more independent samples. Summed scale scores were considered as interval-level data and analysed with Student's t tests and ANOVAs. Effect sizes are reported as Cohen's d and partial eta-squared (η·2p), respectively.FindingsAfter excluding 18 suspected bots and 94 incomplete responses, 530 responses were retained for analysis. Of the 518 respondents who provided demographic data, 63% were female, 71·4% were White, and the mean family affluence score was 8·22 (SD 2·29). Most participants (n=343; 70%) did not report a history of diagnosis or treatment for a mental health disorder, but mental health scores indicated a common experience of (relatively mild) symptoms of anxiety, depression, and str
  • Journal article
    Jiang X, Lefauve A, Dalziel SB, Linden PFet al., 2022,

    The evolution of coherent vortical structures in increasingly turbulent stratified shear layers

    , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 947, ISSN: 0022-1120
  • Journal article
    Roberts L, Lounsbury O, Awuzudike V, Lawrance E, Jennings Net al., 2022,

    Healthy environments: Understanding perceptions of underrepresented communities in the United Kingdom

    , International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-21, ISSN: 1660-4601

    A healthy environment has been defined by global health organisations as one that is safe, supportive of healthy lifestyles, and free of hazards. Such definitions disregard the complexity of what it means for an environment to be perceived as ‘healthy’—such as the mental, not just physical, health effects on citizens. This study aimed to understand the attributes that underrepresented groups of the United Kingdom (UK) public assign to healthy environments—an important step for directing public policy and actions to create environments that are inclusive of all citizens. This co-created study involved 95 participants from underrepresented communities in 10 separate focus groups, each facilitated by a community member. Thematic analyses highlighted five key attributes of a healthy environment: sounds and sights, accessibility, safety, familiarity and mental health and wellbeing. This study draws a picture of key attributes underrepresented groups of the UK public assign to healthy environments that is richer than that drawn by existing definitions. These findings illustrate the importance of hearing diverse voices when directing research, policy, and actions that attempt to develop healthy environments for all.
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

    Author Correction: On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall.

    , Sci Rep, Vol: 12
  • Journal article
    Lawrance EL, Thompson R, Newberry Le Vay J, Page L, Jennings Net al., 2022,

    The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing: A Narrative Review of Current Evidence, and its Implications

    , INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF PSYCHIATRY, Vol: 34, Pages: 443-498, ISSN: 0954-0261
  • Journal article
    Yang AJK, Tedford EW, Olsthoorn J, Lefauve A, Lawrence GAet al., 2022,

    Velocity perturbations and Reynolds stresses in Holmboe instabilities

    , Physics of Fluids, Vol: 34, ISSN: 1070-6631

    The velocity perturbations and Reynolds stresses associated with finite-amplitude Holmboe instabilities are investigated using linear stability analysis, numerical simulations, and laboratory experiments. The rightward and leftward propagating Holmboe instabilities are separated, allowing for a direct comparison of the perturbation fields between the numerical simulations and the linear stability analysis. The decomposition and superposition of the perturbation fields provide insights into the structure and origin of Reynolds stresses in Holmboe instabilities. Shear instabilities in stratified flows introduce a directional preference (anisotropy) in velocity perturbation fields, thereby generating Reynolds stresses. Here, we investigate this anisotropy by comparing pairs of horizontal and vertical velocity perturbations (u ′, w ′), obtained from the simulations and the laboratory experiment, with predictions from linear stability analysis. For an individual Holmboe mode, both the simulations and linear theory yield elliptical (u ′, w ′)-pairs that are oriented toward the second and fourth quadrants (u ′ w ′ < 0), corresponding to the tilted elliptical trajectories of particle movement. Combining the leftward and rightward Holmboe modes yields (u ′, w ′) ellipses whose orientation and aspect ratio are phase-dependent. When averaged over a full cycle, the joint probability density functions of (u ′, w ′) in the linear theory and single wavelength simulations exhibit "steering wheel"structures. This steering wheel is smeared out in multiple wavelength simulations and the laboratory experiment due to varying wavelengths, resulting in an elliptical cloud. All of the approaches adopted in the present study yield Reynolds stresses that are comparable to those reported in previous laboratory and field investigations.
  • Journal article
    Tsui EYL, Toumi R, 2022,

    Pacific subsurface temperature as a long‐range indicator of El Niño, regional precipitation, and fire

    , Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 148, Pages: 2102-2117, ISSN: 0035-9009

    The SubNiño4 index based on the subsurface potential temperature around the thermocline beneath the west Pacific warm pool, the Niño 4 region, is examined as a long-range indicator of the surface El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO-driven atmospheric response. The SubNiño4 index captures the evolution of subsurface ocean heat content between the El Niño and La Niña phases of the ENSO cycle, allowing it to serve as a long-range indicator of surface ENSO and hence also many ENSO-driven atmospheric anomalies. The SubNiño4 index has more temporally stable correlations with Niño 3.4 than the widely used western equatorial Pacific warm-water volume indicator. For a lead time of the order of 12 months, Niño 3.4 correlations afforded by the lead observed SubNiño4 index become similar to and can exceed those produced by typical dynamical ENSO predictions. The value and viability of the SubNiño4 index as a simple statistical long-range indicator of ENSO-driven atmospheric response is shown for regional precipitation anomalies throughout the Tropics and fires in Continental and Maritime Southeast Asia.
  • Journal article
    Gangopadhyay A, Seshadri AK, Sparks NJ, Toumi Ret al., 2022,

    The role of wind-solar hybrid plants in mitigating renewable energy-droughts

    , Renewable Energy, Vol: 194, Pages: 926-937, ISSN: 0960-1481

    Increasing the share of weather-dependent renewables in the electricity grid is essential to deeply decarbonize the electricity system. Wind and solar “droughts” or low generation days can severely impact grid stability in a renewable-rich grid. This paper analyzes for the first time wind, solar, and hybrid energy-droughts in India using a stochastic weather generator. Available literature analyze the observational data that is of limited duration (30–40 years). Therefore, discussion of low-probability high-impact renewable energy-droughts that have long return periods (in the range of 30 years) is limited in the literature. The present study seeks to address this research gap by exploring the risk of wind, solar, and wind-solar powered energy-droughts based on simulated long time series (5000 years). It is found that the weather generator captures mean, seasonality, and correlation between wind speed and solar irradiance and is therefore used to estimate return periods of extreme wind and solar-droughts. Our analysis shows that wind-droughts are more intense than solar-droughts in India. We examine the role that wind-solar hybridization can play in offsetting low wind energy episodes. The benefits of hybridization are regionally dependent. In South India, hybrid plants have advantages over either wind or solar plants alone. In comparison, for Rajasthan, the benefits of hybridization are limited. When one of the regions (South India or Rajasthan) has a renewable drought, the other region has only a 10% probability of having a similar drought. Our findings highlight the need for having robust inter-regional grid connections to mitigate regional level renewable droughts.
  • Journal article
    Mazzei A, Konstantinoudis G, Kreis C, Diezi M, Ammann RA, Zwahlen M, Kuehni C, Spycher BDet al., 2022,

    Childhood cancer and residential proximity to petrol stations: a nationwide registry-based case-control study in Switzerland and an updated meta-analysis

    , INTERNATIONAL ARCHIVES OF OCCUPATIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH, Vol: 95, Pages: 927-938, ISSN: 0340-0131
  • Journal article
    Xu H, Tian Z, Sun L, Ye Q, Ragno E, Bricker J, Mao G, Tan J, Wang J, Ke Q, Wang S, Toumi Ret al., 2022,

    Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai

    , Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol: 22, Pages: 2347-2358, ISSN: 1561-8633

    Compound flooding is generated when two or more flood drivers occur simultaneously or in close succession. Multiple drivers can amplify each other and lead to greater impacts than when they occur in isolation. A better understanding of the interdependence between flood drivers would facilitate a more accurate assessment of compound flood risk in coastal regions. This study employed the D-Flow Flexible Mesh model to simulate the historical peak coastal water level, consisting of the storm surge, astronomical tide, and relative sea level rise (RSLR), in Shanghai over the period 1961–2018. It then applies a copula-based methodology to calculate the joint probability of peak water level and rainfall during historical tropical cyclones (TCs) and to calculate the marginal contribution of each driver. The results indicate that the astronomical tide is the leading driver of peak water level, followed by the contribution of the storm surge. In the longer term, the RSLR has significantly amplified the peak water level. This study investigates the dependency of compound flood events in Shanghai on multiple drivers, which helps us to better understand compound floods and provides scientific references for flood risk management and for further studies. The framework developed in this study could be applied to other coastal cities that face the same constraint of unavailable water level records.
  • Journal article
    Cheng S, Jin Y, Harrison SP, Quilodran-Casas C, Prentice IC, Guo Y-K, Arcucci Ret al., 2022,

    Parameter flexible wildfire prediction using machine learning techniques:forward and inverse modelling

    , Remote Sensing, ISSN: 2072-4292
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

    An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size

    , npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2397-3722

    There are simple conceptual models of tropical cyclone intensification and potential intensity. However, such a framework has been lacking to describe the evolution of the outer circulation. An analytic growth model of the tropical cyclone outer size is derived from the angular momentum equation. The growth model fits a full-physics idealized tropical cyclone simulation. The lifecycle composite of the best-track outer size growth shows a strong super-linear nature, which supports an exponential growth as predicted by the growth model. The climatology of outer size growth measured by the radius of gale-force wind in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific during the period 2004–2017, can be understood in terms of four growth factors of the model: the initial size, the growth duration, the mean growth latitude, and the mean top-of-boundary-layer effective local inflow angle. All four variables are significantly different between the two basins. The observed lifetime maximum size follows a lognormal distribution, which is in line with the law of the proportionate effect of this exponential growth model. The growth model fits the observed outer size well in global basins. The time constant of the exponential size growth is approximately equal to the product of the Coriolis parameter and the mean effective inflow angle above the boundary layer. Further sensitivity experiments with the growth model suggest that the interannual variability of the global lifetime maximum size is largely driven by the variation of growth duration.
  • Journal article
    Lok CCF, Chan JCL, Toumi R, 2022,

    Importance of air-sea coupling in simulating tropical cyclone intensity at landfall

    , Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 39, Pages: 1777-1786, ISSN: 0256-1530

    An atmosphere-only model system for making seasonal prediction and projecting future intensities of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) along the South China coast is upgraded by including ocean and wave models. A total of 642 TCs have been re-simulated using the new system to produce a climatology of TC intensity in the South China Sea. Detailed comparisons of the simulations from the atmosphere-only and the fully coupled systems reveal that the inclusion of the additional ocean and wave models enable differential sea surface temperature responses to various TC characteristics such as translational speed and size. In particular, interaction with the ocean does not necessarily imply a weakening of the TC, with the coastal bathymetry possibly playing a role in causing a near-shore intensification of the TC. These results suggest that to simulate the evolution of TC structure more accurately, it is essential to use an air-sea coupled model instead of an atmosphere-only model.
  • Report
    Teng F, Chhachhi SAURAB, Ge PUDONG, Graham J, Gunduz Det al., 2022,

    Balancing privacy and access to smart meter data: an Energy Futures Lab briefing paper

    Digitalising the energy system is expected to be a vital component of achieving the UK’s climate change targets. Smart meter data, in particular, is seen a key enabler of the transition to more dynamic, cost-effective, cost-reflective, and decarbonised electricity. However, access to this data faces a challenge due to consumer privacy concerns. This Briefing Paper investigates four key elements of smart meter data privacy: existing data protection regulations; the personal information embedded within smart meter data; consumer privacy concerns; and privacy-preserving techniques that could be incorporated alongside existing mechanisms to minimise or eliminate potential privacy infringements.
  • Journal article
    Gangopadhyay A, Sparks NJ, Toumi R, Seshadri AKet al., 2022,

    Risk assessment of wind droughts over India

    , Current Science, Vol: 122, Pages: 1145-1153, ISSN: 0011-3891

    Wind power growth makes it essential to simulateweather variability and its impacts on the electricitygrid. Low-probability, high-impact weather events suchas a wind drought are important but difficult to identify based on limited historical datasets. A stochasticweather generator, Imperial College Weather Generator (IMAGE), is employed to identify extreme eventsthrough long-period simulations. IMAGE capturesmean, spatial correlation and seasonality in wind speedand estimates return periods of extreme wind eventsover India. Simulations show that when Rajasthan experiences wind drought, southern India continues tohave wind, and vice versa. Regional grid-scale winddroughts could be avoided if grids are strongly interconnected across the country.
  • Journal article
    Bozal-Ginesta C, Rao RR, Mesa CA, Wang Y, Zhao Y, Hu G, Anton-Garcia D, Stephens IEL, Reisner E, Brudvig GW, Wang D, Durrant JRet al., 2022,

    Spectroelectrochemistry of Water Oxidation Kinetics in Molecularversus Heterogeneous Oxide Iridium Electrocatalysts

    , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 144, Pages: 8454-8459, ISSN: 0002-7863
  • Journal article
    Scott SB, Sorensen JE, Rao RR, Moon C, Kibsgaard J, Shao-Horn Y, Chorkendorff Iet al., 2022,

    The low overpotential regime of acidic water oxidation part II: trends in metal and oxygen stability numbers

    , ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, Vol: 15, Pages: 1988-2001, ISSN: 1754-5692
  • Journal article
    Scott SB, Rao RR, Moon C, Sorensen JE, Kibsgaard J, Shao-Horn Y, Chorkendorff Iet al., 2022,

    The low overpotential regime of acidic water oxidation part I: the importance of O<sub>2</sub> detection

    , ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, Vol: 15, Pages: 1977-1987, ISSN: 1754-5692
  • Journal article
    Rao RR, Corby S, Bucci A, Garcia-Tecedor M, Mesa CA, Rossmeisl J, Gimenez S, Lloret-Fillol J, Stephens IEL, Durrant JRet al., 2022,

    Spectroelectrochemical analysis of the water oxidation mechanism on doped nickel oxides

    , Journal of the American Chemical Society, Vol: 144, Pages: 7622-7633, ISSN: 0002-7863

    Metal oxides and oxyhydroxides exhibit state-of-the-art activity for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER); however, their reaction mechanism, particularly the relationship between charging of the oxide and OER kinetics, remains elusive. Here, we investigate a series of Mn-, Co-, Fe-, and Zn-doped nickel oxides using operando UV–vis spectroscopy coupled with time-resolved stepped potential spectroelectrochemistry. The Ni2+/Ni3+ redox peak potential is found to shift anodically from Mn- < Co- < Fe- < Zn-doped samples, suggesting a decrease in oxygen binding energetics from Mn- to Zn-doped samples. At OER-relevant potentials, using optical absorption spectroscopy, we quantitatively detect the subsequent oxidation of these redox centers. The OER kinetics was found to have a second-order dependence on the density of these oxidized species, suggesting a chemical rate-determining step involving coupling of two oxo species. The intrinsic turnover frequency per oxidized species exhibits a volcano trend with the binding energy of oxygen on the Ni site, having a maximum activity of ∼0.05 s–1 at 300 mV overpotential for the Fe-doped sample. Consequently, we propose that for Ni centers that bind oxygen too strongly (Mn- and Co-doped oxides), OER kinetics is limited by O–O coupling and oxygen desorption, while for Ni centers that bind oxygen too weakly (Zn-doped oxides), OER kinetics is limited by the formation of oxo groups. This study not only experimentally demonstrates the relation between electroadsorption free energy and intrinsic kinetics for OER on this class of materials but also highlights the critical role of oxidized species in facilitating OER kinetics.
  • Journal article
    Lee TH, Rao RR, Pacalaj RA, Wilson AA, Durrant JRet al., 2022,

    A Dual Functional Polymer Interlayer Enables Near-Infrared Absorbing Organic Photoanodes for Solar Water Oxidation

    , ADVANCED ENERGY MATERIALS, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1614-6832
  • Journal article
    Kotova L, Costa MM, Jacob D, Hewitt C, Newton P, Garrett N, New S, Parfitt R, Dunbar T, Bessembinder J, Toumi R, Buonocore M, Krzic A, Terrado Met al., 2022,

    Climateurope festival: an innovative way of linking science and society

    , Climate Services, Vol: 26, ISSN: 2405-8807

    The Climateurope Festivals were designed to create synergies between different European, national and international initiatives in the fields of Earth-system modelling & Climate Services and enhance the transfer of information between suppliers and users. It gave an opportunity to display best in class outcomes and engage in world class networking in a less rigid environment than a scientific conference.A number of formats were adopted in the Festival, from traditional impulse talks to innovative interactive sessions, and the thought-provoking discussions allowed the participants to share their experiences and knowledge around the advantages and challenges that Climate Services face within different sectors.Three Climateurope Festivals were originally planned to be held across Europe. Two Festivals were successfully organised, the first in Valencia in 2017, and the second in Belgrade in 2018. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns and travel restrictions, the third and final Festival was held online as a series of virtual web-based Festivals in 2020/2021.The Festivals were highly valued by participants. There was a strong desire by the Climateurope network to continue a science-stakeholder dialogue and make the Climateurope Festivals a regular event.
  • Journal article
    Lefauve A, Linden PF, 2022,

    Experimental properties of continuously forced, shear-driven, stratified turbulence. Part 2. Energetics, anisotropy, parameterisation

    , Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol: 937, ISSN: 0022-1120

    In this Part 2 we study further experimental properties of two-layer exchange flows in a stratified inclined duct, which are turbulent, strongly stratified, shear-driven and continuously forced. We analyse the same state-of-the-art data sets using the same ‘core’ shear-layer methodology as in Part 1 (Lefauve & Linden, J. Fluid Mech., vol. 937, 2022, A34), but we focus here on turbulent energetics and mixing statistics. The detailed analysis of kinetic and scalar energy budgets reveals the specificity and scalings of ‘SID turbulence’, while energy spectra provide insight into the current strengths and limitations of our experimental data. The anisotropy of the flow at different scales characterises the turbulent kinetic energy production and dissipation mechanisms of Holmboe waves and overturning turbulence. We then assess standard mixing parameterisation models relying on uniform eddy diffusivities, mixing lengths, flux parameters, buoyancy Reynolds numbers or turbulent Froude numbers, and we compare our representative values with the stratified mixing literature. The dependence of these measures of mixing on controllable flow parameters is also elucidated, providing asymptotic estimates that may be extrapolated to more strongly turbulent flows, quantified by the product of the tilt angle of the duct and the Reynolds number. These insights may serve as benchmark for the future generation of experimental data with superior spatio-temporal resolution required to probe increasingly vigorous turbulence.
  • Journal article
    Lefauve A, Linden PF, 2022,

    Experimental properties of continuously forced, shear-driven, stratified turbulence. Part 1. Mean flows, self-organisation, turbulent fractions

    , Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol: 937, ISSN: 0022-1120

    We study the experimental properties of exchange flows in a stratified inclined duct, which are simultaneously turbulent, strongly stratified by a mean vertical density gradient, driven by a mean vertical shear, and continuously forced by gravity. We focus on the ‘core’ shear layer away from the duct walls, where these flows are excellent experimentally realisable approximations of canonical hyperbolic-tangent stratified shear layers, whose forcing allows mean and turbulent properties to reach quasi-steady states. We analyse state-of-the-art data sets of the time-resolved density and velocity in three-dimensional subvolumes of the duct in 16 experiments covering a range of flow regimes (Holmboe waves, intermittent turbulence, full turbulence). In this Part 1 we first reveal the permissible regions in the multidimensional parameter space (Reynolds number, bulk Richardson number, velocity-to-density layer thickness ratio), and their link to experimentally controllable parameters. Reynolds-averaged balances then reveal the subtle momentum forcing and dissipation mechanisms in each layer, the broadening or sharpening of the density interface, and the importance of the streamwise non-periodicity of these flows. Mean flows suggest a tendency towards self-similarity of the velocity and density profiles with increasing turbulence, and gradient Richardson number statistics support prior ‘internal mixing’ theories of ‘equilibrium Richardson number’, ‘marginal stability’ and ‘self-organised criticality’. Turbulent volume fractions based on enstrophy and overturn thresholds quantify the nature of turbulence between different regimes in different regions of parameter space, while highlighting the challenges of obtaining representative statistics in spatiotemporally intermittent flows. These insights may stimulate and assist the development of numerical simulations with a higher degree of experimental realism.
  • Report
    Levey S, Gilbert A, Amer H, Wynton L, Jennings N, Petersen Ket al., 2022,

    Grantham Institute Outlook 2021-2022

    , Grantham Institute Outlook 2021-2022, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute

    The Grantham Institute's annual Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research and activities underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

    More tropical cyclones are striking coasts with major intensities at landfall

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322

    In this study we show that the number of annual global tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls with major landfall intensity (LI≥50 m s-1) has nearly doubled from 1982 to 2020. The lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of global major landfalling TCs has been increasing by 0.8 m s-1 per decade (p<0.05), but this significance of intensity change disappears at landfall (0.3 m s-1 per decade, p=0.69). The lack of a significant LI trend is caused by the much larger variance of LI than that of LMI in all basins and explains why a significant count change of TCs with major intensity at landfall has only now emerged. Basin-wide TC trends of intensity and spatial distribution have been reported, but this long-term major TC landfall count change may be the most socio-economic significant.
  • Report
    Kallitsis E, Lander L, Edge J, Bravo Diaz L, Brown A, Kelsall G, Offer G, Korre Aet al., 2022,

    Safe and sustainable lithium-ion batteries

    , Safe and Sustainable Lithium-ion Batteries, Publisher: Imperial College London - Energy Futures Lab

    The transition to clean energy and electric mobility is driving unprecedented demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). This paper investigates the safety and sustainability of LIBs, exploring ways of reducing their impact on the environment and ensuring they do not pose a danger to health of workers or users.
  • Report
    Morris O, Barquín J, Belgrano A, Blanchard J, Bull C, Layer-Dobra K, Lauridsen R, O’Gorman E, Guõbergsson G, Woodward Get al., 2022,

    New strategies for sustainable fisheries management: A case study of Atlantic salmon

    , New strategies for sustainable fisheries management: A case study of Atlantic salmon, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, 37

    This briefing paper considers the alarming declines in fish stocks in recent years, and how holistic, integrated approaches can help manage fish stocks within biologically sustainable limits. Using Atlantic salmon as a case study, the authors highlight the challenges facing fisheries management and conservation, and the implications for policy and management.
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

    On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322

    It remains unclear how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay from their ocean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) to landfall intensity (LI), yet this stage is of fundamental importance governing the socio-economic impact of TCs. Here we show that TCs decay on average by 25% from LMI to LI. A logistic decay model of energy production by ocean enthalpy input and surface dissipation by frictional drag, can physically connect the LMI to LI. The logistic model fits the observed intensity decay as well as an empirically exponential decay does, but with a clear physical foundation. The distance between locations of LMI and TC landfall is found to dominate the variability of the decay from the LMI to LI, whereas environmental conditions are generally less important. A major TC at landfall typically has a very large LMI close to land. The LMI depends on the heating by ocean warming, but the LMI location is also important to future landfall TC intensity changes which are of socio-economic importance.

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