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  • Journal article
    Sparks N, Toumi R, 2021,

    On the seasonal and sub-seasonal factors influencing East China tropical cyclone landfall

    , Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 22, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 1530-261X

    To date it has proved difficult to make seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones, particularly for landfall and in East China specifically. This study examines sources of predictability for the number of landfalling typhoons in East China on seasonal (June–October) and sub‐seasonal time scales. East China landfall count is shown to be independent of basin‐scale properties of TC tracks, such the genesis location, duration, basin track direction and length, and basin total count. Large‐scale environmental climate indices which are potential basin scale drivers are also shown to be largely uncorrelated with landfall prior to and throughout the season. The most important factor is the steering in the final stages to landfall. The seasonal landfall is strongly anti‐correlated with the more local zonal mid‐tropospheric wind field over the East China sea (r = −.61, p < .001). It is proposed that geopotential height anomalies over Korea/Japan cause anomalous easterly winds in the East China Sea and enhance landfall rates by steering typhoons onto the coast. Early, peak, and late sub‐seasonal landfall counts are shown to be independent of each other yet share this predictor. This local feature may be dynamically predictable allowing a potential hybrid dynamical‐statistical seasonal forecast of landfall.
  • Journal article
    Sechi S, Giarola S, Lanzini A, Gandiglio M, Santarelli M, Oluleye G, Hawkes Aet al., 2021,

    A bottom-up appraisal of the technically installable capacity ofbiogas-based solid oxide fuel cells for self power generation in wastewatertreatment plants

    , Journal of Environmental Management, Vol: 279, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 0301-4797

    This paper proposes a bottom-up method to estimate the technical capacity of solid oxide fuel cells to be installed in wastewater treatment plants and valorise the biogas obtained from the sludge through an efficient conversion into electricity and heat. The methodology uses stochastic optimisation on 200 biogas profile scenarios generated from industrial data and envisages a Pareto approach for an a posteriori assessment of the optimal number of generation unit for the most representative plant configuration sizes. The method ensures that the dominant role of biogas fluctuation is included in the market potential and guarantees that the utilization factor of the modules remains higher than 70% to justify the investment costs. Results show that the market potential for solid oxide fuel cells across Europe would lead up to 1,300 MW of installed electric capacity in the niche market of wastewater treatment and could initiate a capital and fixed costs reduction which could make the technology comparable with alternative combined heat and power solutions.
  • Journal article
    Toumi R, Wang S, 2021,

    Recent migration of tropical cyclones toward coasts

    , Science, Vol: 371, Pages: 514-517, ISSN: 0036-8075

    Poleward migrations of tropical cyclones have been observed globally, but their impact on coastal areas remains unclear. We investigated the change in global tropical cyclone activity in coastal regions over the period 1982–2018. We found that the distance of tropical cyclone maximum intensity to land has decreased by about 30 kilometers per decade, and that the annual frequency of global tropical cyclones increases with proximity to land by about two additional cyclones per decade. Trend analysis reveals a robust migration of tropical cyclone activity toward coasts, concurrent with poleward migration of cyclone locations as well as a statistically significant westward shift. This zonal shift of tropical cyclone tracks may be mainly driven by global zonal changes in environmental steering flow.
  • Journal article
    Zhang Y, Etzold MA, Lefauve A, 2021,

    Growth of gas-filled penny-shaped cracks in decompressed hydrogels.

    , Soft Matter, Vol: 17, Pages: 815-825

    We report that the decompression of soft brittle materials can lead to the growth of internal gas-filled cracks. These cracks are oblate spheroids ('penny shape'), whose major radius grows linearly in time, irreversibly fracturing the surrounding material. Our optical measurements in hydrogels characterise and quantify the three-dimensional crack geometry and growth rate. These results are in good agreement with our analytical model coupling fracture mechanics and gas diffusion, and predicting the dependence on the mechanical properties, gas diffusivity and super-saturation conditions (gas pressure, solubility, temperature). Our results suggest a new potential mechanism for decompression sickness in scuba diving and for indirect optical measurements of the fracture properties of hydrogels.
  • Report
    Mitchell-Larson E, Green T, Lewis-Brown E, Jennings N, Joly C, Goodwin F, Reay D, Rothman R, Scott C, Allen M, Forster Pet al., 2021,

    How can carbon offsetting help UK further and higher education institutions achieve net zero emissions?

    , COP26 Universities Network Briefin, Publisher: COP26 Universities Network

    There are a range of views on the use of carbonoffsetting among academics, higher and furthereducation professional staff, corporates andoffsetting providers. When and where offsets shouldbe used or not used, and what types of offsets to use,are to some extent value-laden choices. These choicesare being actively debated at the international andcommunity level. This briefing note provides guidance to support the development of further and highereducation offsetting policies and to challengeinstitutions, including our own. It specifically discussesthe use of offsetting in the context of net zerostrategies. We are also using the briefing to consultour institutions on the approaches they are taking.We hope it prompts discussion and collective actiontowards making net zero a reality.
  • Journal article
    Rao RR, Stephens IEL, Durrant JR, 2021,

    Understanding What Controls the Rate of Electrochemical Oxygen Evolution

    , JOULE, Vol: 5, Pages: 16-18, ISSN: 2542-4351
  • Report
    Koberle A, Ostrovnaya A, Ganguly G, 2021,

    A guide to building climate-financial scenarios for financial institutions

    , A guide to building climate-financial scenarios for financial institutions, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/, Publisher: Grantham Institute, 35

    This briefing considers how the financial sector can manage the risks associated with moving to a zero-carbon future. The paper outlines why it is essential for financial institutions to understand so-called climate transition scenarios, which explore this journey to a zero-carbon future. The paper also sets out a framework that financial institutions can use to construct, or understand and use, climate transition scenarios in the context of financial sector risk management.
  • Journal article
    Konstantinoudis G, Padellini T, Bennett J, Davies B, Blangiardo Met al., 2021,

    Long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: a hierarchical spatial analysis

    , Environment International, Vol: 146, ISSN: 0160-4120

    Recent studies suggested a link between long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality. However, due to their ecological design based on large spatial units, they neglect the strong localised air-pollution patterns, and potentially lead to inadequate confounding adjustment. We investigated the effect of long-term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 on COVID-19 mortality in England using high geographical resolution. In this nationwide cross-sectional study in England, we included 38,573 COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 at the Lower Layer Super Output Area level (n = 32,844 small areas). We retrieved averaged NO2 and PM2.5 concentration during 2014–2018 from the Pollution Climate Mapping. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effect of air-pollution while adjusting for a series of confounding and spatial autocorrelation. We find a 0.5% (95% credible interval: −0.2%, 1.2%) and 1.4% (95% CrI: −2.1%, 5.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality risk for every 1 μg/m3 increase in NO2 and PM2.5 respectively, after adjusting for confounding and spatial autocorrelation. This corresponds to a posterior probability of a positive effect equal to 0.93 and 0.78 respectively. The spatial relative risk at LSOA level revealed strong patterns, similar for the different pollutants. This potentially captures the spread of the disease during the first wave of the epidemic. Our study provides some evidence of an effect of long-term NO2 exposure on COVID-19 mortality, while the effect of PM2.5 remains more uncertain.
  • Journal article
    Oluleye G, Gandiglio M, Santarelli M, Hawkes Aet al., 2021,

    Pathways to commercialisation of biogas fuelled solid oxide fuel cells in European wastewater treatment plants

    , Applied Energy, Vol: 282, ISSN: 0306-2619

    Fuel cell developments are driven by the need for more efficient and cleaner energy provision; however, current costs make it uneconomic in wastewater treatment plants. Interventions via policy instruments and business models may be required for cost reduction until the fuel cell is driven purely by market forces. In this work a novel market potential assessment methodology is developed and applied to quantify the impact of various interventions on biogas fuelled solid oxide fuel cell cost reduction and synthesize pathways to its commercialisation. The method is applied to 6181 plants in 27 European countries. Results show that 71% cost reduction is required for a medium sized fuel cell to be market driven. Existing incentives can trigger cost reduction by 13–38% but are not able to sustain it until the fuel cell is market driven. Innovations in business models, and incentivising business models instead of technologies can trigger and sustain cost reduction. Results also show that under today’s high capital cost, the number of economically attractive plants required to install fuel cells are lowest when business models are incentivised compared to other interventions. Incentivising new business models to encourage innovation in the sector has more impact that incentivising technologies. The framework is also relevant for creating narratives around the commercialisation of new technologies.
  • Journal article
    Smith M, Toumi R, 2021,

    A dipole of tropical cyclone outgoing long-wave radiation

    , Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 147, Pages: 166-180, ISSN: 0035-9009

    Large‐scale (500 ≤ r ≤ 2,200 km) outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) and water vapour (WV) fields are investigated in satellite observations over the Pacific, linked to ERA‐5 reanalysis data and the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) globally. A large‐scale OLR dipole pattern of low and high fluxes are found in both the observations and model. As expected, a low OLR region is positioned within the TC circulation, but there is also a robust high OLR region poleward and west of the TC centre. A dry “black hole” on WV grey‐scale imagery occupies the same region of high OLR. Relative to the central low OLR TC signal, the typical dipole magnitude, distance and orientation of the high OLR regions are 230 W·m−2, 1,150 km, and 145° anticlockwise from east. From the reanalysis we find that the interaction between the vortex and the environmental flows produces upper‐level convergence, low‐level divergence and subsidence throughout the troposphere in the region of high OLR. Analysis of the ECMWF model shows that the position of the high OLR region rotates anticlockwise about the TC centre as the TC moves from westward to eastward. Through use of a sub‐ensemble, we test if capturing the high OLR anomaly has a significant relationship with TC track. We apply a perfect model approach and find that sub‐ensembles that are composed of models whose large‐scale OLR fields closely match the target TC also have a better track. This improvement is mostly attributed to the high OLR component of the dipole.
  • Journal article
    Rao RR, Tulodziecki M, Han B, Risch M, Abakumov A, Yu Y, Karayaylali P, Gauthier M, Escudero-Escribano M, Orikasa Y, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2021,

    Reactivity with Water and Bulk Ruthenium Redox of Lithium Ruthenate in Basic Solutions

    , ADVANCED FUNCTIONAL MATERIALS, Vol: 31, ISSN: 1616-301X
  • Report
    Levey S, Gilbert A, Amer H, Petersen K, Jennings N, Butler Cet al., 2020,

    Grantham Institute Outlook 2020-2021

    , Grantham Institute Outlook 2020-2021, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London

    The Grantham Institute Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.
  • Report
    Reynard N, Ellison E, Wilson A, Williamson P, O-Niles J, Ransome E, Mashayekhi Aet al., 2020,

    The contribution of coastal blue carbon ecosystems to climate change mitigation and adaptation

    , The contribution of coastal blue carbon ecosystems to climate change mitigation and adaptation, www.imperial.ac.uk/Grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, BP34

    This briefing paper explores the potential for marine coastal ecosystems that store carbon, blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), to help both limit climate change and adapt to the impacts of a changing climate. It also considers the range of benefits BCEs bring to coastal communities, and makes recommendations for policy approaches.
  • Journal article
    Mesa CA, Rao RR, Francas L, Corby S, Durrant JRet al., 2020,

    Reply to: Questioning the rate law in the analysis of water oxidation catalysis on haematite photoanodes

    , NATURE CHEMISTRY, Vol: 12, Pages: 1099-+, ISSN: 1755-4330
  • Journal article
    Parks RM, Bennett JE, Tamura-Wicks H, Kontis V, Toumi R, Danaei G, Ezzati Met al., 2020,

    Reply to: Concerns over calculating injury-related deaths associated with temperature

    , NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 26, ISSN: 1078-8956
  • Conference paper
    Oluleye O, Teng Y, 2020,

    A Comparative Assessment of Policies to Support Heat Decarbonisation in an Industrial Site Utility System

    , 12th International Conference on Applied Energy
  • Journal article
    Casas CQ, Arcucci R, Wu P, Pain C, Guo Y-Ket al., 2020,

    A Reduced Order Deep Data Assimilation model

    , PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA, Vol: 412, ISSN: 0167-2789
  • Report
    Hine R, 2020,

    Tools to encourage low-carbon travel

    , Tools to encourage low-carbon travel, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Discussion Paper 8

    This discussion paper assesses how different travel incentive schemes affect consumer travel choices, and explores how policymakers and the private sector can support innovative low-carbon incentives to help drive down emissions in the transport sector.
  • Journal article
    Kawaguchi T, Rao RR, Lunger JR, Liu Y, Walko D, Karapetrova EA, Komanicky V, Shao-Horn Y, You Het al., 2020,

    Stern layers on RuO<sub>2</sub> (100) and (110) in electrolyte: Surface X-ray scattering studies

    , JOURNAL OF ELECTROANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY, Vol: 875, ISSN: 1572-6657
  • Journal article
    Sparks N, Toumi R, 2020,

    Pacific subsurface ocean temperature as a long-rangepredictor of South China tropical cyclone landfall

    , Communications Earth & Environment, Vol: 1, ISSN: 2662-4435

    Seasonal forecasts of the tropical cyclones which frequently make landfall along the densely populated South China coast are highly desirable. Here, we analyse observations of landfalling tropical cyclones in South China and of subsurface ocean temperatures in the Pacific warm pool region, and identify the possibility of forecasts of South China tropical cyclone landfall a year ahead. Specifically, we define a subsurface temperature index, subNiño4, and build a predictive model based on subNiño4 anomalies with a robust double cross-validated forecast skill against climatology of 23%, similar in skill to existing forecasts issued much later in the spring. We suggest that subNiño4 ocean temperatures precede the surface El Niño/Southern Oscillation state by about 12 months, and that the zonal shifts in atmospheric heating then change mid-level winds to steer tropical cyclones towards landfall in South China. We note that regional subsurface ocean temperature anomalies may permit atmospheric predictions in other locations at a longer range than is currently thought possible.
  • Journal article
    Jennings N, Rao M, 2020,

    Towards a carbon neutral NHS

    , BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 371, ISSN: 0959-535X
  • Report
    Carmichael R, Rhodes A, Hanna R, Gross Ret al., 2020,

    Smart and flexible electric heat: an energy futures lab briefing paper

    , Smart and Flexible Electric Heat: An Energy Futures Lab Briefing Paper

    Heating in residential, commercial and industrial settings makes up almost half of final energy consumption in the UK, more than the energy consumed for electricity or transport. The electrification of heat is anticipated to play a major role for the UK’s efforts to reduce emissions to net-zero by 2050. Heating demand is highly variable between seasons and time of day. To take maximum advantage of low-carbon generation, and to respect the limitations of the distribution grid, electricity loads for heating will need to be flexible. This Briefing Paper explores the potential for smart flexible low-carbon electric heating in UK homes and the challenges for consumer engagement. This paper considers four key elements for enabling smart, flexible and cost- effective electric heating in UK homes: low-carbon heating systems; cost-reflective electricity pricing; thermally efficient buildings; and smart storage devices.
  • Conference paper
    Oluleye O, 2020,

    Reducing Carbon Mitigation costs of Biogas Fuelled Solid Oxide Fuel Cells: An impact of new business models

    , 15th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES 2020)

    The high cost of the SOFC makes it difficult to achieve win-win between emission reduction and economic benefits. Most studies neglect the CO2abatement costs associated with cleaner technologies, and studies on abatement costs focus on a global perspective, neglecting technology-specific abatement costs. The SOFC abatement cost can be reduced with innovations in business models. In this work a novel enviro-economic framework whose basis is a detailed optimisation of a plant is developed and applied to quantify the impactof new business models (specifically looking at offsetting capital costs by ploughing back operational savings from a high-efficient SOFC) on reducing the CO2abatement cost of biogas fuelled SOFC systems. Case studies show the new business models reduces the abatement cost from 122 to 56 € per ton in Bulgaria, 160 to 92 € per ton in Czech Republic, and 150 to -90 € per ton in the UK.
  • Journal article
    Jennings N, Fecht D, De Matteis S, 2020,

    Mapping the co-benefits of climate change action to issues of public concern in the UK: a narrative review

    , The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol: 4, Pages: e424-e433, ISSN: 2542-5196

    To avoid a 1·5°C rise in global temperatures above preindustrial levels, the next phase of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will need to be comparatively rapid. Linking the co-benefits of climate action to wider issues that the public are concerned about can help decision makers to prioritise decarbonisation options that increase the chance of public support for such changes, while ensuring that a just transition is delivered. We identified key issues of concern to the UK public by use of Ipsos MORI public opinion data from 2007 to 2020 and used these data to guide a narrative review of academic and grey literature on the co-benefits of climate change action for the UK. Correspondence with civil servants, third sector organisations, and relevant academics allowed us to identify omissions and to ensure policy relevance of the recommendations. This evidence-based Review of the various co-benefits of climate change action for the UK identifies four main areas: health and the National Health Service; security; economy and unemployment; and poverty, housing, and inequality. Associated trade-offs are also discussed. City-level and regional-level governments are particularly well placed to incorporate co-benefits into their decision making because it is at this scale that co-benefits most clearly manifest, and where interventions can have the most immediate effects.
  • Working paper
    Konstantinoudis G, Padellini T, Bennett J, Davies B, Ezzati M, Blangiardo Met al., 2020,

    Long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: a hierarchical spatial analysis

    , Publisher: MedRxiv

    Recent studies suggested a link between long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality. However, due to their ecological design based on large spatial units, they neglect the strong localised air-pollution patterns, and potentially lead to inadequate confounding adjustment. We investigated the effect of long-term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 on COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 in England using high geographical resolution. In this nationwide cross-sectional study in England, we included 38,573 COVID-19 deaths up to June 30, 2020 at the Lower Layer Super Output Area level (n=32,844 small areas). We retrieved averaged NO2 and PM2.5 concentration during 2014-2018 from the Pollution Climate Mapping. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effect of air-pollution while adjusting for a series of confounding and spatial autocorrelation. We find a 0.5% (95% credible interval: -0.2%, 1.2%) and 1.4% (95% CrI: -2.1%, 5.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality risk for every 1μg/m3 increase in NO2 and PM2.5 respectively, after adjusting for confounding and spatial autocorrelation. This corresponds to a posterior probability of a positive effect equal to 0.93 and 0.78 respectively. The spatial relative risk at LSOA level revealed strong patterns, similar for the different pollutants. This potentially captures the spread of the disease during the first wave of the epidemic. Our study provides some evidence of an effect of long-term NO2 exposure on COVID-19 mortality, while the effect of PM2.5 remains more uncertain.
  • Journal article
    Liu F, Tan Q-G, Weiss D, Crémazy A, Fortin C, Campbell PGCet al., 2020,

    Unravelling metal speciation in the microenvironment surrounding phytoplankton cells to improve predictions of metal bioavailability.

    , Environmental Science and Technology (Washington), Vol: 54, Pages: 8177-8185, ISSN: 0013-936X

    A lack of knowledge on metal speciation in the microenvironment surrounding phytoplankton cells (i.e., the phycosphere) represents an impediment to accurately predicting metal bioavailability. Phycosphere pH and O2 concentrations from a diversity of algae species were compiled. For marine algae in the light, the average increases were 0.32 pH units and 0.17 mM O2 in the phycosphere, whereas in the dark the average decreases were 0.10 pH units and 0.03 mM O2, in comparison to bulk seawater. In freshwater algae, the phycosphere pH increased by 1.28 units, whereas O2 increased by 0.38 mM in the light. Equilibrium modeling showed that the pH alteration influenced the chemical species distribution (i.e., free ion, inorganic complexes, and organic complexes) of Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sc, Sm, and Zn in the phycosphere, and the O2 fluctuation increased oxidation rates of Cu(I), Fe(II) and Mn(II) from 2 to 938-fold. The pH/O2-induced changes in phycosphere metal chemistry were larger for freshwater algae than for marine species. Reanalyses of algal metal uptake data in the literature showed that uptake of the trivalent metals (Sc, Sm and Fe), in addition to divalent metals, can be better predicted after considering the phycosphere chemistry.
  • Report
    Waring B, Neumann M, Prentice IC, Adams M, Smith P, Siegert Met al., 2020,

    What role can forests play in tackling climate change?

    , What role can forests play in tackling climate change?, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Discussion paper 6

    This discussion paper consolidates knowledge on the potential environmental, economic and societal benefits of using trees to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It highlights areas for further research and defines the limits of trees’ ability to halt the progress of climate change.
  • Journal article
    Hauser A, Counotte MJ, Margossian CC, Konstantinoudis G, Low N, Althaus CL, Riou Jet al., 2020,

    Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe

    , PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1549-1277
  • Journal article
    Lefauve A, Linden PF, 2020,

    Buoyancy-driven exchange flows in inclined ducts

    , Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol: 893, ISSN: 0022-1120

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  • Journal article
    Wang S, Rashid T, Thorp H, Toumi Ret al., 2020,

    A shortening of the life-cycle of major tropical cyclones

    , Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 47, Pages: 28 Jul 2020-28 Jul 2020, ISSN: 0094-8276

    In this study a comprehensive picture of the changing intensity life cycle of major (Category 3 and higher) tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. Over the past decades, the lifetime maximum intensity has increased, but there has also been a significant decrease in duration of time spent at intensities greater than Category 1. These compensating effects have maintained a stable global mean‐accumulated cyclone energy of individual major TCs. The global mean duration of major TCs has shortened by about 1 day from 1982 to 2018. There has been both faster intensification (Categories 1 to 3) and weakening (Categories 3 to 1) by about 40%. The probabilities of rapid intensification and rapid weakening have both risen in the period 2000–2018 compared to 1982–1999. A statistically significant anticorrelation is found between the lifetime maximum intensity and the following duration of the final weakening. This suggests an element of self‐regulation of TC life cycles.

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