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ReportTrask A, Wills K, Green T, et al., 2021,
Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy System
, Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy SystemThis Briefing Paper explores the impactthe COVID-19 pandemic had on the UK’senergy sector over the course of thefirst government-mandated nationallockdown that began on 23 March 2020.Research from several aspects of theIntegrated Development of Low-carbonEnergy Systems (IDLES) programme atImperial College London is presented inone overarching paper. The main aim isto determine what lessons can be learntfrom that lockdown period, given theunique set of challenges it presented inour daily lives and the changes it broughtabout in energy demand, supply, anduse. Valuable insights are gained intohow working-from-home policies,electric vehicles, and low-carbon gridscan be implemented, incentivised, andmanaged effectively.
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Journal articleStevenson S, Collins A, Jennings N, et al., 2021,
A hybrid approach to identifying and assessing interactions between climate action (SDG13) policies and a range of SDGs in a UK context
, Discover Sustainability, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2662-9984In 2015 the United Nations drafted the Paris Agreement and established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for all nations. A question of increasing relevance is the extent to which the pursuit of climate action (SDG 13) interacts both positively and negatively with other SDGs. We tackle this question through a two-pronged approach: a novel, automated keyword search to identify linkages between SDGs and UK climate-relevant policies; and a detailed expert survey to evaluate these linkages through specific examples. We consider a particular subset of SDGs relating to health, economic growth, affordable and clean energy and sustainable cities and communities. Overall, we find that of the 89 UK climate-relevant policies assessed, most are particularly interlinked with the delivery of SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and that certain UK policies, like the Industrial Strategy and 25-Year Environment Plan, interlink with a wide range of SDGs. Focusing on these climate-relevant policies is therefore likely to deliver a wide range of synergies across SDGs 3 (Good Health and Well-being), 7, 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure), 11, 14 (Life Below Water) and 15 (Life on Land). The expert survey demonstrates that in addition to the range of mostly synergistic interlinkages identified in the keyword search, there are also important potential trade-offs to consider. Our analysis provides an important new toolkit for the research and policy communities to consider interactions between SDGs, which can be employed across a range of national and international contexts.
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Journal articleKe Q, Yin J, Bricker JD, et al., 2021,
An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai
, Natural Hazards, Vol: 109, Pages: 671-703, ISSN: 0921-030XClimate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with spring tides, threatens to cause failure of flood defenses, resulting in massive flooding in low-lying coastal areas. However, limited research has been done on the combined effects of the increasing intensity of TCs and sea level rise on the characteristics of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes. This paper investigates the spatial variation of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes subject to past and future TC climatology and sea level rise, via a case study of a low-lying deltaic city- Shanghai, China. Using a hydrodynamic model and a spectral wave model, storm tide and wave parameters were calculated as input for an empirical model of overtopping discharge rate. The results show that the change of storm climatology together with relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely exacerbates the coastal hazard for Shanghai in the future, in which RSLR is likely to have a larger effect than the TC climatology change on future coastal flooding in Shanghai. In addition, the coastal flood hazard will increase to a large extent in terms of the flood water volume for each corresponding given return period. The approach developed in this paper can also be utilized to investigate future flood risk for other low-lying coastal regions.
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Journal articleWang S, Toumi R, Ye Q, et al., 2021,
Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?
, Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1530-261XIt has been shown that the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) has been increasing together with a poleward migration of TC track. However, their relative importance to TC surge at landfall remains unknown. Here we examine the sensitivity of TC surge in Shanghai to landfall location and intensity with a new dynamical modelling framework. We find a surge sensitivity of 0.8 m (°N)−1 to landfall location, and 0.1 m (m s−1)−1 to wind speed in Shanghai during landfall. The landfall location and intensity are comparably important to surge variation. However, based on a plausible range of reported trends of TC poleward migration and intensity, the potential surge hazard due to poleward migration is estimated to be about three times larger than that by intensity change. The long-term surge risk in Shanghai is therefore substantially more sensitive to changes of TC track and landfall location than intensity. This may also be true elsewhere and in the future.
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Journal articlePhillipson LM, Toumi R, 2021,
A physical interpretation of recent tropical cyclone post‐landfall decay
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 48, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0094-8276The decay of landfalling tropical cyclones is important to the damage caused. We examine a simple physically based decay model of maximum surface winds driven by frictional turbulent drag and a modification accounting for partial to complete land roughness. The model fits an algebraic decay with a parameter determined by the ratio of the surface drag coefficient to the effective vortex depth. This parameter has been decreasing from 1980 to 2018. There is also a global mean increase of wind speed 24 h after landfall of +1.13 m/s per decade. We cannot exclude the possibility that this trend is driven by the initial wind speed increase, but it is most likely due to a slowing of the decay. This weaker decay amounts to an additional 7 h of gale force winds for a typical Category 1 at landfall.
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Journal articleLok CCF, Chan JCL, Toumi R, 2021,
Tropical cyclones near landfall can induce their own intensification through feedbacks on radiative forcing
, Communications Earth & Environment, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2662-4435Rapid intensification of near-landfall tropical cyclones is very difficult to predict, and yet has far-reaching consequences due to their disastrous impact to the coastal areas. The focus for improving predictions of rapid intensification has so far been on environmental conditions. Here we use the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System to simulate tropical cyclones making landfall in South China: Nida (2016), Hato (2107) and Mangkhut (2018). Two smaller storms (Hato and Nida) undergo intensification, which is induced by the storms themselves through their extensive subsidence ahead of the storms, leading to clear skies and strong solar heating of the near-shore sea water over a shallow continental shelf. This heating provides latent heat to the storms, and subsequently intensification occurs. In contrast, such heating does not occur in the larger storm (Mangkhut) due to its widespread cloud cover. This results imply that to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity changes prior to landfall, it is necessary to correctly simulate the short-term evolution of near-shore ocean conditions.
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Journal articleThomas A, Theokritoff E, Lesnikowski A, et al., 2021,
Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation
, Regional Environmental Change, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1436-3798Constraints and limits to adaptation are critical to understanding the extent to which human and natural systems can successfully adapt to climate change. We conduct a systematic review of 1,682 academic studies on human adaptation responses to identify patterns in constraints and limits to adaptation for different regions, sectors, hazards, adaptation response types, and actors. Using definitions of constraints and limits provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that most literature identifies constraints to adaptation but that there is limited literature focused on limits to adaptation. Central and South America and Small Islands generally report greater constraints and both hard and soft limits to adaptation. Technological, infrastructural, and ecosystem-based adaptation suggest more evidence of constraints and hard limits than other types of responses. Individuals and households face economic and socio-cultural constraints which also inhibit behavioral adaptation responses and may lead to limits. Finance, governance, institutional, and policy constraints are most prevalent globally. These findings provide early signposts for boundaries of human adaptation and are of high relevance for guiding proactive adaptation financing and governance from local to global scales.
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Journal articleWang T, Zhang Y, Huang B, et al., 2021,
Enhancing oxygen reduction electrocatalysis by tuning interfacial hydrogen bonds
, NATURE CATALYSIS, Vol: 4, Pages: 753-762, ISSN: 2520-1158- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 81
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Journal articleTsui EYL, Toumi R, 2021,
Hurricanes as an enabler of Amazon fires
, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2045-2322A teleconnection between North Atlantic tropical storms and Amazon fires is investigated as a possible case of compound remote extreme events. The seasonal cycles of the storms and fires are in phase with a maximum around September and have significant inter-annual correlation. Years of high Amazon fire activity are associated with atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic which favour tropical cyclones. We propose that anomalous precipitation and latent heating in the Caribbean, partly caused by tropical storms, leads to a thermal circulation response which creates anomalous subsidence and enhances surface solar heating over the Amazon. The Caribbean storms and precipitation anomalies could thus promote favourable atmospheric conditions for Amazon fire.
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ReportAinalis D, Bardhan R, Bell K, et al., 2021,
Net-zero solutions and research priorities in the 2020s
, Net-Zero Solutions and Research Priorities in the 2020sKey messages• Technological, societal and nature-based solutions should work together to enable systemic change towards a regenerative society, and to deliver net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.• Prioritise research into efficient, low-carbon and carbon-negative solutions for sectors that are difficult to decarbonise; i.e. energy storage, road transport, shipping, aviation and grid infrastructure.• Each solution should be assessed with respect to GHG emissions reductions, energy efficiency and societal implications to provide a basis for developing long-term policies, maximising positive impact of investment and research effort, and guiding industry investors in safe and responsible planning.
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Journal articleWaite C, Lindstrom-Battle A, Bennett M, et al., 2021,
Resource allocation during the transition to diazotrophy in Klebsiella oxytoca
, Frontiers in Microbiology, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1664-302XFree-living nitrogen-fixing bacteria can improve growth yields of some non-leguminous plants and, if enhanced through bioengineering approaches, have the potential to address major nutrient imbalances in global crop production by supplementing inorganic nitrogen fertilizers. However, nitrogen fixation is a highly resource-costly adaptation and is de-repressed only in environments in which sources of reduced nitrogen are scarce. Here we investigate nitrogen fixation (nif) gene expression and nitrogen starvation response signalling in the model diazotroph Klebsiella oxytoca (Ko) M5a1 during ammonium depletion and the transition to growth on atmospheric N2. Exploratory RNA-sequencing revealed that over 50% of genes were differentially expressed under diazotrophic conditions, among which the nif genes are among the most highly expressed and highly upregulated. Isotopically labelled QconCAT standards were designed for multiplexed, absolute quantification of Nif and nitrogen-stress proteins via multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry (MRM-MS). Time-resolved Nif protein concentrations were indicative of bifurcation in the accumulation rates of nitrogenase subunits (NifHDK) and accessory proteins. We estimate that the nitrogenase may account for more than 40% of cell protein during diazotrophic growth and occupy approximately half the active ribosome complement. The concentrations of free amino acids in nitrogen-starved cells were insufficient to support the observed rates of Nif protein expression. Total Nif protein accumulation was reduced 10-fold when the NifK protein was truncated and nitrogenase catalysis lost (nifK1-1203), implying that reinvestment of de novo fixed nitrogen is essential for further nif expression and a complete diazotrophy transition. Several amino acids accumulated in non-fixing ΔnifLA and nifK1-1203 mutants, while the rest remained highly stable despite prolonged N starvation. Monitoring post-translational uridylylation of the PII-type
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Journal articleHwang J, Rao RR, Giordano L, et al., 2021,
Regulating oxygen activity of perovskites to promote NO<i><sub>x</sub></i> oxidation and reduction kinetics
, NATURE CATALYSIS, Vol: 4, Pages: 663-673, ISSN: 2520-1158- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 44
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Journal articleKe Q, Yin J, Bricker JD, et al., 2021,
Correction to: An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai
, Natural Hazards, Vol: 109, Pages: 705-706, ISSN: 0921-030XThis correction stands to support the update of the original article originally published without co-corresponding attribution to Zhan Tian. The original article has been corrected.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04853-z The Spiral record for original article is: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/115050
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Journal articleFolly CL, Konstantinoudis G, Mazzei-Abba A, et al., 2021,
Bayesian spatial modelling of terrestrial radiation in Switzerland
, JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY, Vol: 233, ISSN: 0265-931X- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 5
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Journal articleZhou L, Liu F, Liu Q, et al., 2021,
Aluminum increases net carbon fixation by marine diatoms and decreases their decomposition: Evidence for the iron-aluminum hypothesis
, LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, Vol: 66, Pages: 2712-2727, ISSN: 0024-3590 -
Journal articleLupatsch JE, Kreis C, Konstantinoudis G, et al., 2021,
Birth characteristics and childhood leukemia in Switzerland: a register-based case-control study
, CANCER CAUSES & CONTROL, Vol: 32, Pages: 713-723, ISSN: 0957-5243- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 6
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Journal articleDhokotera T, Bartels L, Rohrer E, et al., 2021,
Spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of cervical cancer incidence among HIV positive women in South Africa: a nationwide study
, International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1476-072XBackgroundDisparities in invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence exist globally, particularly in HIV positive women who are at elevated risk compared to HIV negative women. We aimed to determine the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal incidence of ICC and the potential risk factors among HIV positive women in South Africa.MethodsWe included ICC cases in women diagnosed with HIV from the South African HIV cancer match study during 2004–2014. We used the Thembisa model, a mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic to estimate women diagnosed with HIV per municipality, age group and calendar year. We fitted Bayesian hierarchical models, using a reparameterization of the Besag-York-Mollié to capture spatial autocorrelation, to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of ICC incidence among women diagnosed with HIV. We also examined the association of deprivation, access to health (using the number of health facilities per municipality) and urbanicity with ICC incidence. We corrected our estimates to account for ICC case underascertainment, missing data and data errors.ResultsWe included 17,821 ICC cases and demonstrated a decreasing trend in ICC incidence, from 306 to 312 in 2004 and from 160 to 191 in 2014 per 100,000 person-years across all municipalities and corrections. The spatial relative rate (RR) ranged from 0.27 to 4.43 in the model without any covariates. In the model adjusting for covariates, the most affluent municipalities had a RR of 3.18 (95% Credible Interval 1.82, 5.57) compared to the least affluent ones, and municipalities with better access to health care had a RR of 1.52 (1.03, 2.27) compared to municipalities with worse access to health.ConclusionsThe results show an increased incidence of cervical cancer in affluent municipalities and in those with more health facilities. This is likely driven by better access to health care in more affluent areas. More efforts should be made to ensure equitable access to health services
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ReportAunedi M, Wills K, Green T, et al., 2021,
Net-zero GB electricity: cost-optimal generation and storage mix
, Great Britain's electricity generation capacity mix for net-zero carbon emissions, Publisher: Energy Futures Lab -
Journal articleBucci A, Garcia-Tecedor M, Corby S, et al., 2021,
Self-supported ultra-active NiO-based electrocatalysts for the oxygen evolution reaction by solution combustion
, JOURNAL OF MATERIALS CHEMISTRY A, Vol: 9, Pages: 12700-12710, ISSN: 2050-7488- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 12
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ReportLawrance E, Thompson R, Fontana G, et al., 2021,
The impact of climate change on mental health and emotional wellbeing: current evidence and implications for policy and practice
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Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Padellini T, Bennett J, et al., 2021,
Response to "re: long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: a hierarchical spatial analysis"
, Environment International, Vol: 150, ISSN: 0160-4120 -
Journal articlePhillipson L, Li Y, Toumi R, 2021,
Strongly coupled assimilation of a hypothetical ocean current observing network within a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model: an OSSE case study of typhoon hato
, Monthly Weather Review, Vol: 149, Pages: 1317-1336, ISSN: 0027-0644The forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is a significant challenge. In this study, we showcase the impact of strongly coupled data assimilation with hypothetical ocean currents on analyses and forecasts of Typhoon Hato (2017). Several observation simulation system experiments (OSSE) were undertaken with a regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model. We assimilated combinations of (or individually) a hypothetical coastal current HF radar network, a dense array of drifter floats, and minimum sea level pressure. During the assimilation, instant updates of many important atmospheric variables (winds and pressure) are achieved from the assimilation of ocean current observations using the cross-domain error covariance, significantly improving the track and intensity analysis of Typhoon Hato. Relative to a control experiment (with no assimilation), the error of minimum pressure decreased by up to 13 hPa (4 hPa/57% on average). The maximum wind speed error decreased by up to 18 kt (5 kt/41% on average) (1 kt ≈ 0.5 m s−1). By contrast, weakly coupled implementations cannot match these reductions (10% on average). Although traditional atmospheric observations were not assimilated, such improvements indicate that there is considerable potential in assimilating ocean currents from coastal HF radar and surface drifters within a strongly coupled framework for intense landfalling TCs.
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Journal articleRao RR, Huang B, Katayama Y, et al., 2021,
pH- and Cation-Dependent Water Oxidation on Rutile RuO<sub>2</sub>(110)
, JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY C, Vol: 125, Pages: 8195-8207, ISSN: 1932-7447- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 24
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Journal articleSmith M, Toumi R, 2021,
Using video recognition to identify tropical cyclone positions
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 48, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0094-8276Tropical cyclone (TC) center fixing is a challenge for improving forecasting and establishing TC climatologies. We propose a novel objective solution through the use of video recognition algorithms. The videos of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific are of sequential, hourly, geostationary satellite infrared (IR) images. A variety of convolutional neural network architectures are tested. The best performing network implements convolutional layers, a convolutional long short-term memory layer, and fully connected layers. Cloud features rotating around a center are effectively captured in this video-based technique. Networks trained with long-wave IR channels outperform a water vapor channel-based network. The average position across the two IR networks has a 19.3 km median error across all intensities. This equates to a 42% lower error over a baseline technique. This video-based method combined with the high geostationary satellite sampling rate can provide rapid and accurate automated updates of TC centers.
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Journal articleToumi R, 2021,
100 Years of meteorology at Imperial College
, Weather, Vol: 76, Pages: 119-119, ISSN: 0043-1656 -
Journal articleHuang B, Myint KH, Wang Y, et al., 2021,
Cation-Dependent Interfacial Structures and Kinetics for Outer-Sphere Electron-Transfer Reactions
, JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY C, Vol: 125, Pages: 4397-4411, ISSN: 1932-7447- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 28
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Journal articleStreet OD, Crisan D, 2021,
Semi-martingale driven variational principles
, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol: 477, ISSN: 1364-5021Spearheaded by the recent efforts to derive stochastic geophysical fluid dynamics models, we present a general framework for introducing stochasticity into variational principles through the concept of a semi-martingale driven variational principle and constraining the component variables to be compatible with the driving semi-martingale. Within this framework and the corresponding choice of constraints, the Euler-Poincaré equation can be easily deduced. We show that the deterministic theory is a special case of this class of stochastic variational principles. Moreover, this is a natural framework that enables us to correctly characterize the pressure term in incompressible stochastic fluid models. Other general constraints can also be incorporated as long as they are compatible with the driving semi-martingale.
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Journal articleCudby J, Lefauve A, 2021,
Weakly nonlinear Holmboe waves
, Physical Review Fluids, Vol: 6 -
Journal articleQuilodrán-Casas C, Silva VS, Arcucci R, et al., 2021,
Digital twins based on bidirectional LSTM and GAN for modelling COVID-19
The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spreadthroughout the globe infecting over 100 million people and causing the death ofover 2.2 million people. Thus, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics ofepidemiological models to gain a better understanding of how such diseasesspread. While epidemiological models can be computationally expensive, recentadvances in machine learning techniques have given rise to neural networks withthe ability to learn and predict complex dynamics at reduced computationalcosts. Here we introduce two digital twins of a SEIRS model applied to anidealised town. The SEIRS model has been modified to take account of spatialvariation and, where possible, the model parameters are based on official virusspreading data from the UK. We compare predictions from a data-correctedBidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network and a predictive GenerativeAdversarial Network. The predictions given by these two frameworks are accuratewhen compared to the original SEIRS model data. Additionally, these frameworksare data-agnostic and could be applied to towns, idealised or real, in the UKor in other countries. Also, more compartments could be included in the SEIRSmodel, in order to study more realistic epidemiological behaviour.
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Journal articleSparks N, Toumi R, 2021,
On the seasonal and sub-seasonal factors influencing East China tropical cyclone landfall
, Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 22, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 1530-261XTo date it has proved difficult to make seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones, particularly for landfall and in East China specifically. This study examines sources of predictability for the number of landfalling typhoons in East China on seasonal (June–October) and sub‐seasonal time scales. East China landfall count is shown to be independent of basin‐scale properties of TC tracks, such the genesis location, duration, basin track direction and length, and basin total count. Large‐scale environmental climate indices which are potential basin scale drivers are also shown to be largely uncorrelated with landfall prior to and throughout the season. The most important factor is the steering in the final stages to landfall. The seasonal landfall is strongly anti‐correlated with the more local zonal mid‐tropospheric wind field over the East China sea (r = −.61, p < .001). It is proposed that geopotential height anomalies over Korea/Japan cause anomalous easterly winds in the East China Sea and enhance landfall rates by steering typhoons onto the coast. Early, peak, and late sub‐seasonal landfall counts are shown to be independent of each other yet share this predictor. This local feature may be dynamically predictable allowing a potential hybrid dynamical‐statistical seasonal forecast of landfall.
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